Introduction to Coneval and its Relevance
The Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social (Coneval) was one of the significant obstacles to the current regime in Mexico. Along with a long list of autonomous bodies, Coneval was removed from the country’s structure by President López Obrador and his administration throughout the ongoing six-year term. Coneval played a crucial role in evaluating social policies and measuring poverty, providing a multidimensional view of the issue in Mexico.
Coneval’s Impact and its Absence
Coneval’s absence, along with other autonomous organizations, leaves a void in the checks and balances system. The lack of policy evaluation in social matters will hinder current assistentialist models, even for electoral purposes. Coneval developed a methodology, experience, and specific mandate that cannot be transferred by decree.
Coneval’s Role in Measuring Pobreza
Under the Ley General de Desarrollo Social, Coneval was responsible for measuring pobreza with a multidimensional approach. This allowed for targeted actions based on the true extent of poverty in Mexico. Today, the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (Inegi) lacks both the capacity and trust to undertake such evaluations, despite being tasked with conducting the Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares.
Impartiality and Trust in Information
There are legitimate concerns about Inegi’s impartiality in presenting results that could be unfavorable to the current regime, which has struggled economically. Moreover, the information generated by Coneval might become less relevant if the economy were expanding and social programs proved effective. However, both assumptions are incorrect.
Current Economic Situation in Mexico
Efforts are underway to avoid using the word “recession,” but the reality remains grim. During the first quarter of this year, 120,000 jobs were lost—the worst figure since the 2009 global financial crisis.
- 73% of lost jobs were in the informal sector, which offers no compensation for unemployment.
- The underemployed population, those working but needing more income, reached 3.9 million people with a subemployment rate of 6.6%.
These millions of people living precariously could easily swell the ranks of the labor poor, but there are currently no tools to assess how a six-year term ending with low growth and a new term starting with negative indicators will affect poverty levels.
Conclusion
The absence of Coneval and other autonomous bodies weakens the system of checks and balances in Mexico. The lack of social policy evaluation will likely exacerbate existing problems, such as poverty, which is expected to worsen in various dimensions.
