Introduction
Authoritarianism, even when it dresses itself in popular garments, can open the door to armed violence by canceling peaceful and democratic avenues of political participation. In a country plagued by criminal violence, institutional closure, division, and inequality can create a fertile ground for this to occur. Personally, I do not believe in armed struggle to overthrow an authoritarian or tyrannical government.
Historical Context of Armed Struggle
The 20th century taught us that armed struggle against dictatorships and authoritarian regimes had two outcomes. In one, it resulted in a spectacular failure, causing loss of life, especially among the young. Additionally, it led to increased repression affecting social organizations, critical intellectuals, and innocent individuals. Examples include the dirty wars in Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Uruguay, Peru, Colombia, Guatemala, and Mexico.
In another outcome, triumphant guerrillas who somehow gained power, like in Cuba, Nicaragua, or El Salvador, strayed from their initial purpose of serving the people and ended up as antidemocratic nightmares and oppressive governments.
Defining Key Terms
A paramilitary armed guerrilla movement is a non-state actor whose objective is to seize political power through force. Unlike criminal organizations, a guerrilla has political objectives.
Despite these formal definitions, reality paints a different picture. Take the case of Colombia’s Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), which began as an insurgent group but evolved into a criminal political organization actively engaged in drug trafficking and kidnapping. Here, the theoretical boundaries between a politically motivated armed group and one with criminal intentions have blurred.
Mexico’s Unique Situation
In Mexico, we’ve witnessed an inverse process. Criminal organizations that originated as criminal groups are increasingly infiltrating politics. Though they lack an ideology or guiding principles, their motivation is clear: to gain political power for control over budgets, projects, businesses, and people. In certain regions, these criminal groups have established parallel states to the national government, collecting taxes, enforcing laws, and even setting prices for goods like tortillas, chicken, and eggs.
Criminal Organizations in Mexican Politics
There are numerous indications of criminal organizations’ approach to political parties or candidates and their interference in electoral processes. The recent Veracruz election process exemplifies the extent of criminal organization involvement in elections: threats, kidnappings, and even deaths.
In my previous article, I stated that the judicial election would be a pyrrhic victory for the federal government. Indeed, nine out of ten Mexicans rejected participating in the election or left their ballots blank or invalid. This is a significant failure and embarrassment for President Sheinbaum.
Morena and the government triumphed, but they face a judiciary they cannot control. They might exert influence over the Supreme Court and Electoral Tribunal, but local judges and magistrates, dealing with specific matters daily, answer to various masters: morenist governors, influential groups within the dominant party, and even criminal organizations.
Implications and Future Risks
With control over three branches of government and most of the state apparatus, they will continue pushing their reforms to close off spaces for other currents and parties. Their focus remains staying in power as long as the economic situation permits. However, when the political and economic climate becomes suffocating, there’s a risk of a new form of armed violence.
Without a democratic avenue for dissenting currents and parties to participate, many may resort to alternative means. In the 1970s, armed groups rebelled against the authoritarian priist regime during the Mexican miracle’s decline. The fourth transformation’s miracle existed only in rhetoric.
Today, Mexico is among the world’s most violent countries. Authoritarianism and crises can pave the way for greater violence.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the concern regarding authoritarianism in Mexico? Authoritarianism can lead to the cancellation of peaceful political participation, potentially opening the door to armed violence in a country already grappling with criminal violence, institutional closure, division, and inequality.
- How have historical armed struggles against dictatorships turned out? Armed struggle has historically resulted in failure, increased repression, and antidemocratic outcomes. Some guerrillas gained power but deviated from their initial purpose, leading to oppressive governments.
- What distinguishes a political armed guerrilla from criminal organizations? A political armed guerrilla aims to seize political power through force with clear political objectives. Criminal organizations, however, lack such ideological motivations.
- How are criminal organizations infiltrating Mexican politics? Criminal groups are increasingly engaging in politics, seeking control over budgets, projects, and people. In some regions, they have established parallel states, collecting taxes and enforcing laws.
- What are the implications of criminal organizations’ involvement in Mexican politics? The recent judicial election highlights the lack of legitimacy and popular support for the newly elected judges. With control over three branches of government, there’s a risk of new forms of armed violence if democratic avenues for dissenting parties remain closed.
