Morena’s Ambition and the PRI Comparison
Morena aspires to maintain power indefinitely, but it cannot succeed because it is a flawed replica of the PRI. The PRI was an open party that renewed its leadership every six years and did not rely on a single moral leader to govern. In contrast, Morena and the current government have become closed spaces that fail to represent the country’s plurality and diversity.
The PRI, for better or worse, endured because it represented the interests of all sectors. Morena, however, does not. The PRI president held complete control over the government and party for six years before relinquishing power at the end of their term. Unlike the PRI, Claudia Sheinbaum, the current head of government, is not the party’s leader, and it remains unclear whether she holds the reins of power or if Andrés Manuel López Obrador still wields influence behind the scenes.
López Obrador’s Influence and Control
López Obrador has effectively organized the government, allowing him to maintain influence even in retirement. He has entrusted Claudia Sheinbaum with the presidency but maintains control over both legislative chambers through loyalists. This pattern extends to governors and even the cabinet, where individuals remain devoted to López Obrador rather than Sheinbaum.
Morena, too, is controlled by López Obrador through his son, “Andy.” The newly formed judicial system will consist of López Obrador’s loyalists, as evidenced by the composition of the Supreme Court and the Judicial Tribunal.
Reform Dilemmas and Democratic Regression
There is uncertainty regarding whether the reforms approved during this administration serve López Obrador’s interests or if Sheinbaum genuinely supports them. These reforms have weakened autonomous bodies and the judiciary, marking a democratic regression. While it may seem inconsequential, Sheinbaum’s true belief in these reforms will significantly impact democratic liberties in the country.
Power Distribution and Future Challenges
Despite the appearance of unlimited power for Sheinbaum due to Morena’s control over the legislative chambers, this power is fragmented among Morena’s leaders. This distribution of power could lead to crises when selecting candidates for governor and legislative positions in 2027, as well as when choosing Sheinbaum’s successor.
The PRI successfully renewed its leadership every six years in the legislative chambers and cabinet, enabling it to refresh presidential candidacies. In contrast, Morena lacks fresh presidential candidates, with the same individuals likely to run in 2030. These individuals are unlikely to fall in line with Morena’s leadership, making it difficult for the party to maintain unity during succession.
Morena’s Future Prospects
As things stand, Morena will lack a strong candidate for the 2030 presidential race. Except for García Harfuch, most potential candidates are spent forces. Voters may struggle to support a candidate with little understanding of governance, except in matters of security.
Morena supporters believe their party is invincible, but they are mistaken. López Obrador’s decision to divide power will be Morena’s Achilles’ heel in 2030. Sheinbaum does not possess the full power many imagine; true authority remains with López Obrador in Palenque.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is Morena’s main challenge? Morena’s inability to renew its leadership and maintain a diverse range of candidates will hinder its long-term success.
- How does López Obrador maintain influence? Through strategic organization of government bodies and loyalists in key positions, López Obrador retains power despite his retirement.
- What are the implications of recent reforms? These reforms weaken autonomous bodies and the judiciary, potentially undermining democratic liberties.
- Why is power distribution a problem for Morena? Fragmented power among Morena’s leaders could lead to crises during candidate selection and succession planning.
- What does Morena’s future look like? Without strong, fresh candidates, Morena faces difficulties in maintaining power and unity.
