Background on Donald Trump and His Actions
On the early hours of last Saturday, Donald Trump ordered airstrikes against three Iranian nuclear facilities using bombs designed to penetrate mountains and deep fortifications. The US action, presented as decisive, aimed to halt Iran’s nuclear advancement. However, satellite images do not show widespread damage at Fordo, and sources cited by The New York Times, The Jerusalem Post, and Axios suggest that Iran might have relocated its enriched uranium, creating uncertainty about the deterioration of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring following the attacks.
Iran’s Nuclear Program and Trump’s Airstrikes
According to the IAEA, before the attack, Iran had 408.6 kg of enriched uranium at 60%. If this material were to reach 90% in a few weeks, Iran could produce two to three nuclear weapons. The bombardments aimed to prevent this.
Since Saturday, speculation has surged: some experts claim there will be no regional war in the Middle East; others assert it’s inevitable. There are claims that this marks the end of Iran’s theocratic regime, though others contradict it. Trump, who initially denied seeking a regime change, now suggests—contradicting his own advisors according to The New York Times—that a new Iranian government might be installed. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly supports this objective, as per Haaretz and The Jerusalem Post. Some analysts in media outlets like Foreign Policy and Politico argue that Iran will emerge weakened, while others warn of potential cyberattacks or indirect actions by the Revolutionary Guard.
Economic Implications of Trump’s Attacks
The airstrikes could have significant economic effects. The Brent closed at $76.96 per barrel on Friday, and analysts predict that if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, the price could surpass $120. In a prolonged scenario, the IMF projects a global growth reduction of between 0.5% and 1%. Supply chains could face delays, cost increases, and inflationary pressures. It remains too early to determine if these effects will materialize or if a diplomatic solution will prevail.
For Mexico, an increase in oil prices would benefit Pemex. However, its high debt and limited efficiency might reduce this advantage. Inflation could rise if gasoline prices increase, as Mexico imports nearly 60% of its fuel. The 2025 GDP growth projection was previously revised to between -0.5% and 0.5%, but this adjustment does not account for conflict-related effects.
International Reactions and Implications
International reactions highlighted concern. France and Germany called for moderation; the UK urged against escalation; the UN warned of a potential catastrophe; and China and Russia condemned the attacks. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum called for peace and asked the UN to promote a diplomatic solution. Iran stated it reserves all response options while its allies pledged retaliation.
Trump’s attacks on Iranian nuclear sites might signal the start of a more uncertain phase. If Iran maintains its nuclear capability, if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, or if a negotiated solution prevails, these scenarios remain undefined.
Key Questions and Answers
- What were Trump’s airstrikes against? Trump ordered airstrikes against three Iranian nuclear facilities.
- What was the goal of these airstrikes? The US action aimed to halt Iran’s nuclear advancement.
- Have the airstrikes been successful? Satellite images do not show widespread damage, and there are concerns about the deterioration of IAEA monitoring.
- What are the potential economic effects? Oil prices could rise significantly if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, causing global growth reduction and supply chain disruptions.
- How have countries reacted internationally? There has been concern and calls for moderation, with some countries warning of potential catastrophes.
