Overview of the Situation
In April 2025, Mexico’s retail sales dropped by 1% compared to March, according to the Encuesta Mensual de Empresas Comerciales (EMEC) released by the Instituto Nacional de Geografía y Estadística (Inegi) on Monday. This decline ended a five-month streak of increases, with the interannual comparison weakening, though remaining positive at 0.4% compared to March’s 2.5% annual growth.
Economic Context and Related Indicators
This retail sales decrease coincides with other signs of economic slowdown at the start of Q2 2025, including a labor market desacceleration and industrial activity components. In the formal employment sector, the IMSS reported a loss of 47,442 jobs. Industrial activity virtually stalled, with a mere 0.08% monthly growth, supported by manufacturing’s 0.7% and mining’s 1.3% increases, offsetting construction’s 2% decline.
Consumer Confidence
The Inegi’s Index of Consumer Confidence continued to deteriorate, falling 0.6 units in the month, marking its sixth consecutive monthly decline.
Performance by Category
Out of the 22 sales channels and merchandise types measured by Inegi, 11 categories showed monthly declines in April. The predominant weakness was observed in non-basic, discretionary consumer goods.
- Largest declines:
- Stationery, books, magazines, and newspapers (-8.6%)
- Department stores (-8.1%)
- Used goods (-7.8%)
- Cars and trucks (-4.8%)
- Beverages, ice, and tobacco (-4.6%)
- Largest increases:
- Online sales, television, and printed catalogs (+5.1%)
- Leisure articles (+4.3%)
- Perfumes and jewelry (+4.3%)
- Automotive parts and accessories (+4.1%)
- Motorcycles and other motor vehicles (+3.5%)
Accumulated Performance
Despite April’s decline, the relatively good performance of retail sales during Q1 2025 allowed the indicator to maintain a positive comparison during the first four months of 2025. The consolidated advance was 1%, surpassing the 0.6% observed in the same period of 2024. However, it remains far below the 5% seen in 2023 or the 6.9% recorded in 2022.
Key Questions and Answers
- What happened to Mexican retail sales in April 2025? Retail sales declined by 1% compared to March, ending a five-month growth streak.
- How do these retail sales compare to previous years? Although April’s decline weakened the interannual comparison, it remained positive at 0.4%. The accumulated performance during the first four months of 2025 was 1%, surpassing the 0.6% observed in the same period of 2024 but still far below the 5% seen in 2023 or the 6.9% recorded in 2022.
- What other economic indicators show signs of slowdown? The labor market desaccelerated, with a loss of 47,442 formal jobs. Industrial activity virtually stalled at 0.08% monthly growth, supported by manufacturing’s 0.7% and mining’s 1.3% increases, offsetting construction’s 2% decline. Consumer confidence also continued to deteriorate, falling 0.6 units in April.
