Introduction to Key Events
Former U.S. President Donald Trump took to his social media platform, Truth Social, to declare an end to the conflict between Israel and Iran, which he termed “The 12-Day War.” Trump asserted that both nations agreed to a phased ceasefire, bringing the conflict to an end. He confirmed what had been widely reported in the media: Iran launched 14 missiles at the U.S. airbase in Al Udeid, Qatar. Thirteen were intercepted, and one was deliberately allowed to pass as it posed no threat. According to Trump, Iran would cease attacks for 12 hours, followed by Israel doing the same, thus concluding the hostilities. He urged both sides to “take a step back and give peace a chance.” His tone was triumphant, suggesting he had orchestrated a historic diplomatic solution without visible negotiations or international mediators.
Reality Check: Contradictory Statements
However, as is often the case, facts quickly contradicted his claims. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, swiftly rejected any notion of surrender or agreement. From his X account, he declared, “We will not submit to any aggression.” In his speeches, Khamenei hardened his stance, insisting Iran would not be intimidated by any foreign power and would respond to attacks firmly. He also targeted Israel, labeling it the “terrorist Zionist regime” and accusing it of destabilizing the region with U.S. support.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s silence was equally telling. As of the column’s deadline, neither he nor his government had confirmed or denied Trump’s claimed ceasefire. On June 23, Netanyahu praised U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, calling them “historic” and part of a “peace through strength” strategy. Yet, in the face of Trump’s unilateral declaration of hostilities’ cessation, Netanyahu chose restraint. No press conference, tweet, or official message was issued.
Market Reactions: A Mix of Indifference and Caution
Against this backdrop of unilateral declarations, outright denials, and strategic omissions, global markets responded with a blend of indifference and caution. The S&P 500 closed with a marginal gain of 0.96%, as if geopolitical risk was nonexistent. In Mexico, the IPC dipped slightly (-0.3%), indicating greater local sensitivity to potential conflict impacts. As for the peso, it appreciated slightly, trading around 19.08 per dollar, benefiting from a global weakening of the dollar but still exposed to potential oil price hikes and resulting inflationary pressures.
A Precarious Situation: Between the Surreal and Dangerous
Since last Saturday, events have unfolded in a manner oscillating between the surreal and dangerous: peace announced without an agreement, a unilateral truce imposed by the U.S., or perhaps just an uneasy pause before the storm resumes. The most unsettling aspect is not merely the war itself but how its protagonists manage it and how the rest of the world, including markets, seems to adapt to living on the brink without flinching.
Key Questions and Answers
- What did Donald Trump claim? Trump declared an end to the conflict between Israel and Iran, calling it “The 12-Day War,” and stated that both nations agreed to a phased ceasefire.
- How did Iran respond to Trump’s claims? Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, immediately rejected any notion of surrender or agreement and hardened his stance against perceived foreign aggression.
- What was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s response? Netanyahu neither confirmed nor denied Trump’s claimed ceasefire, opting for silence instead.
- How did global markets react? Markets showed a mix of indifference and caution, with the S&P 500 gaining marginally and the Mexican IPC dipping slightly. The peso appreciated due to a weakening dollar but remained exposed to potential oil price increases and inflationary pressures.
