Introduction to the Issue
Today, from the CEEY (Center for Economic and Social Research), we are releasing the report “Social Mobility in Mexico 2025: The Persistence of Unequal Opportunities.” Based on the ESRU-EMOVI 2023 Survey of Social Mobility in Mexico, the analysis reveals a concerning reality: in Mexico, origin continues to determine one’s destiny. Despite a reduction in income-based poverty between 2017 and 2023, 73% of individuals born into lower-income households have not managed to overcome this condition. This persistence of the intergenerational cycle of poverty reflects a deep inequality of opportunities, placing Mexico among countries where this factor explains an unusually high portion of economic inequality.
The Current State of Social Mobility
To promote greater social mobility, public policy must acknowledge and compensate for the disadvantages of origin. This involves providing everyone with genuine opportunities and fair treatment, enabling them to develop their potential and earn labor rewards commensurate with their abilities.
Since its founding 20 years ago, the CEEY has conducted the ESRU-EMOVI survey with a central question: does a person’s origin primarily determine their destiny? Regrettably, the answer remains yes. On a five-step economic ladder, half of those born at the bottom fail to climb higher. Worse still, only 2% of this population reaches the top step. The survey has evolved to achieve more specific analyses. Today, we know that social mobility prospects are further limited when origin is combined with factors such as region, gender, ethnic affiliation, or skin color. For instance, 64% of people born in Mexico’s southern region remain at the lowest rung, compared to 37% in the north.
The 2023 survey edition also includes an exercise to estimate current income, allowing for the calculation of intergenerational poverty cycle intensity. The data shows that despite a drop in income-based poverty from 48% in 2017 to 41% in 2023, the persistence remains alarming: nearly three out of four individuals born into lower-resource households fail to escape poverty.
The Root Causes of Low Social Mobility
The primary cause of low social mobility is the inequality of opportunities. Not only is it concerning that at least 48% of Mexico’s economic inequality is explained by this factor, but based on an estimation comparable to the London School of Economics (LSE) international ranking, Mexico can be placed among the ten worst performers in a sample of 50 countries. The situation is even more critical in the southern part of the country, comparable to the five countries with the highest opportunity inequality globally.
More than half of this inequality originates from the economic resources of the origin household, reflecting a deep lack of public goods and services with universal coverage and quality for the entire population. If the state does not act as a true opportunities leveler, origin-based conditions will continue to shape individuals’ life horizons. Education is a clear example of the need for such action: those with professionally educated parents have seven times more likelihood of reaching the same level compared to those raised in households where parents at most completed primary school.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main issue addressed in this report? The report focuses on social mobility in Mexico and how origin continues to determine one’s destiny despite reductions in income-based poverty.
- What does the ESRU-EMOVI survey measure? The survey assesses social mobility prospects and identifies factors limiting upward mobility, such as origin, region, gender, ethnicity, and skin color.
- What is the primary cause of low social mobility in Mexico? The main cause is the inequality of opportunities, with more than half originating from household economic resources.
- How does Mexico compare internationally regarding social mobility? Based on an estimation comparable to the London School of Economics (LSE) ranking, Mexico ranks among the ten worst performers in a sample of 50 countries.
The evidence from the report is clear: although income-based poverty has decreased, the inequality of opportunities persists and is reflected in a high degree of intergenerational poverty reproduction. Addressing this challenge requires new-generation public policies that incorporate the origin component in their diagnosis and design.
