Background on the Relevance of the USDA and Commodity Prices
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) plays a crucial role in monitoring and reporting on the nation’s agricultural production, including commodity prices. Its quarterly stock reports significantly influence the futures markets for crops like soybeans and corn. These commodities are vital to the global food supply chain, affecting farmers, food manufacturers, and consumers alike.
USDA Data Release and Its Impact on Prices
On the first of June, the USDA released its quarterly stock data for soybeans, corn, and wheat. The report indicated higher-than-expected stockpiles for soybeans and corn, while wheat stocks also exceeded analysts’ forecasts.
Soybean Price Decline
The August soybean futures in Chicago dropped by 1.5 cents to $10.3175 per bushel following the USDA’s report of 1.008 billion bushels in stock as of June 1, surpassing the average analyst estimate of 980 million bushels.
Corn Price Drop
Corn futures for September delivery fell 3 cents to $4.085 per bushel, as the USDA reported corn stocks of 4.644 billion bushels on June 1, close to the analysts’ average estimate. Meanwhile, good crop conditions in the U.S. kept futures prices anchored, signaling favorable yield prospects.
Wheat Price Reduction
Wheat futures experienced a volatile trading session, with September wheat holding steady at $5.4075 per bushel after reaching their lowest point since mid-May. The June 1 wheat stocks of 851 million bushels surpassed most analysts’ expectations.
First Half-Year Performance
By the end of the first half of 2025, corn prices fell by 10.80%, wheat prices dropped by 2.49%, while soybean prices increased by 1.95%.
USDA’s Planting Estimates
The USDA revised its estimate for U.S. corn plantings in 2025 down to 95.2 million acres, below its March forecast of 95.3 million acres but still 5% above 2024 levels.
Soybean planting estimates were also reduced to 83.4 million acres, below the March prediction of 83.5 million acres and a 4% decrease from the previous year.
Crop Conditions and Future Outlook
Despite the lower planting estimates, favorable U.S. crop conditions supported futures prices, indicating positive yield expectations.
Prior to the USDA’s weekly crop progress report, analysts surveyed by Reuters anticipated an average rating of 70% for U.S. corn crops as good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week and the highest for this time of year in five years.
Key Questions and Answers
- What caused the recent decline in soybean and corn prices? The USDA’s quarterly stock report on June 1 indicated higher-than-expected stockpiles for soybeans and corn, leading to the price drops.
- How did wheat prices react to the USDA data? Wheat futures experienced a volatile trading session, with September wheat holding steady after reaching their lowest point since mid-May. The June 1 wheat stocks exceeded most analysts’ expectations.
- What were the USDA’s revised planting estimates for 2025? The USDA lowered its estimate for U.S. corn plantings to 95.2 million acres and soybean plantings to 83.4 million acres, both below previous forecasts.
- How have commodity prices performed in the first half of 2025? Corn prices fell by 10.80%, wheat prices dropped by 2.49%, while soybean prices increased by 1.95%.
- What factors are influencing current futures prices for soybeans, corn, and wheat? Despite lower planting estimates, favorable U.S. crop conditions have anchored futures prices, signaling positive yield prospects.
