Background on Donald Trump’s Influence and Geopolitical Factors
The Mexican peso concluded the first half of 2025 with an appreciation against the US dollar, marking its largest semesterly gain since 2023. This period was influenced by Donald Trump’s presidency in the United States, as well as trade tariffs and Middle East conflicts.
Key Data from Banco de México (Banxico)
According to data from Banco de México (Banxico), the Mexican currency closed at 18.7654 pesos per dollar, representing a 0.46% or 8.75 centavo appreciation. This brought six consecutive days of gains against the dollar, accumulating a 2.10% appreciation.
Moreover, the exchange rate reached its best level since August 19, 2023, when it was at 18.6985 units.
Monthly and Semesterly Performance
On a monthly basis, the peso appreciated by 3.5%, marking its fifth consecutive month of gains versus the greenback, and being its best month since November 2023 when it appreciated by 3.54%.
During the first half of the year, the currency demonstrated a 10.14% advance, the highest since 2023 when it gained 12.27% against the dollar.
The peso ranked 12th among the most appreciated currencies in the broad basket of major crosses. The dollar lost 10.78% in the first half, according to the weighted index (DXY), marking the largest decline in the first half of the year since 1973, when it depreciated by 14.76%.
Impact of Donald Trump’s Policies
Gabriela Siller, Director of Analysis at Banco Base, explained in a statement: “The first half of 2025 was marked by the beginning of Donald Trump’s second term on January 20. On February 1, the Trump administration announced that a 25% tariff would be imposed on all imports from Mexico and Canada starting February 4.”
She further noted that these tariffs caused high volatility and pressured the exchange rate to its yearly peak of 21.2932 pesos per dollar, reached on February 2.
“However, these tariffs were postponed to March 4 following conversations between Donald Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum, resulting in an agreement for coordination to strengthen border security,” Siller concluded.
Key Questions and Answers
- Who is Donald Trump and why is he relevant? Donald Trump is the former President of the United States, whose policies and statements have had significant impacts on global markets, including the Mexican peso.
- What factors influenced the Mexican peso’s appreciation? The Mexican peso appreciated due to Donald Trump’s presidency, trade tariffs initiated by his administration, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- What was the extent of the peso’s appreciation? The Mexican peso appreciated by 10.14% in the first half of 2025, marking its largest semesterly gain since 2023.
- How did tariffs affect the peso-dollar exchange rate? The announcement of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada initially pressured the peso to its yearly peak, but these tariffs were later postponed following discussions between Donald Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum.
