Introduction to Claudia Sheinbaum’s Government and Fiscal Performance
Under Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, the Mexican government has been working diligently to reduce its fiscal deficit. The Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP) reported that the Requerimientos Financieros del Sector Público (RFSP) stood at 356,718 million pesos in May, marking a 47% decrease compared to the previous year.
Key Achievements and Context
- Reduced Fiscal Deficit: The government successfully lowered the fiscal deficit to 251,000 million pesos, which is less than the initially planned 411,000 million pesos.
- Primary Budget Surplus: The primary budget surplus amounted to 210,000 million pesos, exceeding the estimated figure by 139,000 million pesos.
- RFSP within Limits: The RFSP reached 357,000 million pesos, staying within the boundaries authorized by the Congress of the Union.
Government’s Fiscal Consolidation Goals
This year, the government aims to achieve fiscal consolidation. In 2023, the RFSP closed at a historical 5.7% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To reach the target of 3.9% of GDP for this year, the administration plans to increase revenues and cut public spending. However, some institutions have expressed concerns that these objectives might not be met.
Rising Public Debt
Despite the shrinking fiscal deficit, the overall public debt, represented by the Saldo Histórico de los RFSP (SHRFSP), has continued to increase. By May, the SHRFSP reached 17.6 trillion pesos, a 9.1% growth compared to the same period last year.
The public debt, at 49.2% of the GDP, remains low compared to emerging economies and Latin American countries. This favorable fiscal position has helped maintain market confidence, secure advantageous financing conditions, and attract high demand for federal instruments.
Sheinbaum’s Fiscal Policy vs. Predecessor
For her first year in office, Claudia Sheinbaum requested a domestic borrowing ceiling of 1.5 trillion pesos from the Congress of the Union, significantly lower than the 3.7 trillion pesos sought by Andrés Manuel López Obrador in his final year. This more conservative approach led to a historically high fiscal deficit in 2024.
External Debt and Congressional Requests
On the external debt front, the government sought up to 15.5 billion US dollars from the Congress of the Union.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the current fiscal deficit under Claudia Sheinbaum’s government? The fiscal deficit has been reduced to 251,000 million pesos, a significant decrease from the previously planned 411,000 million pesos.
- What are the government’s fiscal consolidation goals for this year? The administration aims to lower the RFSP to 3.9% of the GDP through increased revenues and public spending cuts.
- How has the public debt evolved under Sheinbaum’s administration? Although the fiscal deficit has shrunk, the public debt has continued to rise, reaching 17.6 trillion pesos as of May.
- What are Claudia Sheinbaum’s fiscal policy differences compared to her predecessor? Sheinbaum requested a more conservative domestic borrowing ceiling of 1.5 trillion pesos, contrasting with López Obrador’s final-year request of 3.7 trillion pesos.
- What is the current public debt as a percentage of GDP? The public debt stands at 49.2% of the GDP, which is relatively low compared to other emerging economies and Latin American countries.
