Introduction to the Bajío Region and its Export Significance
The Bajío region, comprising states like Guanajuato, Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosí, and Querétaro in Mexico, has historically been a powerhouse for the country’s manufacturing and export sector. These states have consistently ranked among the top national exporters, with Guanajuato previously holding the fifth position.
Key Players and Their Export Performance
Guanajuato, known for its robust manufacturing sector, experienced a 15.9% annual decline in exports, dropping its total sales to $7,521 million. This decrease pushed Guanajuato down from the fifth to the seventh position in national export rankings, surpassed by Tamaulipas and Jalisco.
Aguascalientes, another significant player in the Bajío region, saw a 16.9% decline, with $3,252 million in export earnings. Although it ranked 13th in terms of export volume, Aguascalientes mirrored Guanajuato’s performance in the automotive sector.
Impact on Local Economy and Dependence on Automotive Sector
Both Guanajuato and Aguascalientes heavily rely on the automotive industry. Analyst Héctor Magaña explains that a downturn in this sector translates to fewer orders for local auto parts manufacturers, reduced demand for logistical and industrial services, and potential temporary production adjustments like technical stoppages.
San Luis Potosí and Querétaro, also key exporters in the automotive sector, experienced declines of 0.8% and 10.7%, respectively.
Magaña warns that the automotive sector’s contraction cannot be disregarded, as it plays a crucial role in Mexico’s manufacturing landscape. A prolonged decline could stifle national manufacturing momentum and affect the trade balance, given the sector’s historical contributions to trade surpluses.
Mixed Export Performance Across Mexico
Despite uncertainties surrounding trade with the United States, Mexico’s total exports grew by 3.6% annually to $133,625 million in the first quarter of 2025. However, results were mixed; six leading export states saw increases, while 15 others, nearly half, underperformed.
Chihuahua led the growth with a 27.5% annual increase in exports, totaling $21,320 million (16% of the national total). Despite a contraction in its automotive sector, Chihuahua’s computer, communication, measurement, and electronics manufacturing subsector grew by 77.7% annually and accounted for over half of these exports.
Coahuila followed with a 2.2% annual increase, Nuevo León with 1.6%, Baja California with 9.4%, Tamaulipas with 0.9%, and Jalisco with a significant 25% increase.
Recommendations for Diversification
Given this situation, Magaña suggests that manufacturers and suppliers in Mexico should consider diversifying their export markets to reduce reliance on the United States.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the Bajío region and why is it important for Mexico’s exports? The Bajío region, consisting of states like Guanajuato, Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosí, and Querétaro, has been crucial for Mexico’s manufacturing and export success. These states have historically ranked among the top national exporters.
- Which states experienced export declines, and why? Guanajuato (15.9%), Aguascalientes (16.9%), San Luis Potosí (0.8%), and Querétaro (10.7%) all saw export declines, primarily due to their heavy dependence on the automotive sector.
- What are the potential consequences of these export declines? Declines in the automotive sector could lead to fewer orders for local auto parts manufacturers, reduced demand for logistical and industrial services, and temporary production adjustments.
- What is the overall export performance in Mexico? While total exports grew by 3.6% annually, results were mixed across states. Six leading export states saw increases, but 15 others underperformed.
- What recommendations have been made to address these challenges? Analysts suggest that manufacturers and suppliers in Mexico should diversify their export markets to reduce reliance on the United States.
