National Drought Conditions Show Significant Improvement
According to Mexico’s National Water Commission (Conagua), the majority of the country has seen a substantial decrease in drought conditions. As of June 15, 2025, 45.6% of the national territory is free from drought-related issues, a significant improvement from 12.2% in the same period of 2024.
The areas experiencing moderate to exceptional drought (categories D1-D4) have dropped from 73.79% to 37.5%, while extreme and exceptional drought (D3 and D4) has decreased from 37.5% to 18.7%. Areas with abnormally dry conditions (D0) have slightly increased, rising from 14.0% to 16.9%.
Stark Contrast in Northwestern Regions
Despite the overall positive national outlook, northwestern regions face a contrasting situation. In Sonora, 100% of the territory has experienced some level of drought, with 92.7% classified as severe (D2), extreme (D3), or exceptional (D4). This represents a significant increase from 84.7% of municipios affected in 2024 to all municipios affected in 2025.
Sinaloa reported 94.4% of its municipios with drought conditions, while Baja California increased its percentage of affected municipios from 0% in 2024 to 85.7%. Baja California Sur saw an increase from 0% to 80% of its municipios experiencing drought.
Southern and Central Regions Remain Unaffected
In contrast, southern and central entities like Guerrero, Colima, Morelos, Mexico City, Tlaxcala, and Guanajuato have 100% of their surface area without drought impact. Oaxaca and Veracruz also documented substantial reductions in drought levels.
The varying weather phenomena, including two tropical waves (No. 2 and 3) and low-pressure channels, along with the circulation and cloud shedding from tropical storm Dalila, led to significant rainfall along Mexico’s Pacific coast. These precipitations helped decrease extreme and exceptional drought areas (D3 and D4) in Sonora and Chihuahua, while moderate drought (D1) and abnormally dry conditions (D0) lessened in western, central, and southern Mexico.
Municipal Level Improvements
The report also highlighted an improvement in the number of municipios without drought or abnormally dry conditions, rising from 48 in June 2024 to 1,860. The number of drought-affected municipios decreased from 2,138 to 308—an 85.6% reduction.
Out of the nine hydrological basins, nine showed a decrease in drought areas, three experienced an increase, and one remained unchanged.
The Península de Baja California region witnessed the most significant increase in drought area percentage, rising from 0% in June 2024 to 85.7% in 2025.
Conversely, the Valle de México region, along with Balsas, Lerma-Santiago-Pacífico, and Pacífico Sur regions, reported notable recovery with no drought reported by June 15, 2025.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the current drought situation in Mexico? While most of Mexico has seen a significant improvement, the northwestern regions, particularly Sonora, Baja California, and parts of Sinaloa, continue to face severe drought conditions.
- What factors contributed to the recent changes in drought levels? Various weather phenomena, including tropical waves and low-pressure systems, led to substantial rainfall along the Pacific coast, reducing drought severity in many regions.
- How have drought conditions changed at the municipal level? The number of municipios without drought or abnormally dry conditions has increased, while the overall number of affected municipios has decreased by 85.6%.
- Which regions have shown the most improvement or deterioration in drought conditions? The southern and central regions have remained largely unaffected, while the northwest has experienced a worsening drought situation.
