Remittances to Central American Countries Increase
In May, remittances directed to Mexico decreased by 4.6% annually, but flows directed to the three Central American countries with the highest number of displaced nationals in the US—El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala—increased.
El Salvador received a remittance flow 17.7% higher than the same month in May 2024; Honduras families benefited from a 19.1% increase, and Guatemala’s remittance flows were 15.2% higher.
US Migration Policies Impact Other Groups More
According to BBVA Research economist Juan José Li Ng, this difference does not support the argument that US border control and raids explain the decline in remittances to Mexico.
He noted that remittances have grown both to countries with more undocumented migration and those with higher levels of documentation in their diasporas, including Mexico, between January and May 2025.
Li Ng explained that, at least in the initial months of the current US administration, the Mexican migrant population has not been the most affected by existing US migration actions.
However, these actions have more significantly impacted other groups like migrants originating from South America, the Caribbean, and Central America.
He pointed out that some countries with a higher proportion of undocumented migrants than Mexico, such as Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador, have increased their remittances.
Additionally, there has been growth in remittances to countries with more regularized diasporas, like the Dominican Republic and Colombia.
Mexican Migrant Remittance Behavior
Li Ng previously explained to UNAM students that the Mexican migrant’s commitment to sending remittances is stronger upon arrival in the US but weakens over time due to family separation, parental death, or spousal separation in the home country.
As a result, Mexican migrants have less willingness to send remittances over time.
Factors Affecting Remittances to Mexico
In the BBVA document, Juan José Li Ng concluded that the lower growth dynamics in remittances to Mexico could be related to factors specific to the Mexican diaspora in the US rather than current migration policies.
Jesús González Cervantes, Director of Economic Statistics and the Latin American Remittances Forum at Cemla, concurred.
He highlighted that the number of years migrants have lived in the US could be a crucial variable explaining the remittance flow to Mexico.
González Cervantes explained that the Central American migrant groups in the US are higher than the Mexican group.
He noted that the fear of deportation serves as an incentive to send more remittances and even save money, with a stronger incentive among Central Americans due to the higher percentage of undocumented individuals.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: Why are remittances to Mexico lower than expected? A: According to BBVA Research, this could be due to factors specific to the Mexican diaspora in the US rather than current migration policies.
- Q: How have US migration policies affected different migrant groups? A: While the Mexican migrant population has not been significantly impacted, other groups like South American, Caribbean, and Central American migrants have experienced more pronounced effects.
- Q: What factors contribute to the weakening of Mexican migrant remittance behavior? A: Over time, factors such as family separation, parental death, or spousal separation in the home country lead to a decreased willingness to send remittances.
- Q: How do fears of deportation influence remittance behavior? A: The fear of deportation serves as an incentive for Central American migrants to send more remittances and save money, due to a higher percentage of undocumented individuals in those groups.
