Overview of Bank Credit Trends
While bank credit to the private sector, particularly the consumer segment, had been growing robustly with double-digit increases for over two years, it has recently slowed down. Despite this, credit continues to see increases.
Credit Growth in Consumer Segment Drops to Single Digits
The consumer credit segment, which had been experiencing double-digit growth for more than two years, saw a return to single-digit growth in May 2025. According to the latest Agregados Monetarios y Actividad Financiera released by Banco de México (Banxico), the total credit issued by banks grew 7.3% in real annual comparison, reaching over seven trillion pesos.
- January 2025: 10.1%
- February 2025: 9.7%
- March 2025: 9.0%
- April 2025: 8.0%
May’s growth of 8.8% was the lowest for this segment since October 2022, when it stood at 8.3%.
Breaking down the consumer credit, tarjetas (credit cards) grew 7.4% in May (down from 9.5% in April), nomina (payroll loans) increased by 3.7% (from 4.7%), and personal loans rose by 8.3% (from 9.2%).
The durable consumer goods segment, however, saw an 18.9% growth in May (down from 20.3% in April), primarily driven by the automotive credit, which had previously shown an annual growth rate exceeding 40% but was at 20.3% in May.
As a result, the bank commercial consumer credit portfolio stood at over 1.73 trillion pesos by the end of May.
Housing Credit Experiences a Sharp Desceleration
In terms of housing credit, its real annual growth was 1.7% in May, down from 2.4% in April. This marks the lowest growth since December 2017, when it was also 1.6%, according to Banxico data.
The housing credit portfolio surpassed 1.44 trillion pesos in May, and it’s noteworthy that housing credit has not shown any contraction in recent years, even during the most challenging periods of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Business Credit Growth Returns to Single Digits
In recent months, bank credit allocated to businesses and individuals with commercial activities had been growing significantly, even reaching double-digit growth rates. However, since April, it has returned to single-digit growth (9.6%), a pattern that continued in May with a 9.2% real annual increase.
The balance of this portfolio exceeded 3.68 trillion pesos, making it the largest by amount.
Reflecting a Slower Economic Growth
The reduced momentum in bank credit aligns with a slower national economic growth. The latest Citi expectations survey forecasted a GDP expansion of just 0.1% for 2025.
Banamex anticipates zero growth for the current year, attributing this to both external and internal factors. Rodolfo Ostolaza, the subdirector of economic studies at the bank, mentioned that the May credit data surprised them as it showed reduced momentum across the three main segments: consumer, housing, and business.
Ostolaza further explained that while a slight slowdown in consumer credit could have significant implications for the economy, a potential slowdown in business credit would be more concerning. He emphasized that although there is a general deceleration, they are not yet at alarming levels, as it’s part of the economic cycle.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What is the current trend in bank credit growth?
A: Bank credit to the private sector, particularly the consumer segment, has slowed down from double-digit growth rates to single digits. However, credit continues to see increases.
- Q: How has the consumer credit segment performed recently?
A: After sustained double-digit growth for over two years, the consumer credit segment experienced single-digit growth of 8.8% in May 2025, the lowest since October 2022.
- Q: What is the growth rate of housing credit?
A: Housing credit’s real annual growth was 1.7% in May, the lowest since December 2017.
- Q: How is the business credit segment performing?
A: Business credit growth returned to single digits (9.6% in April) and continued at 9.2% in May.
- Q: How does the bank credit slowdown relate to the national economy?
A: The reduced momentum in bank credit reflects a slower national economic growth, with a GDP expansion forecast of only 0.1% for 2025.
