Overview of Mexico’s Economic Indicators
The Cyclical Indicators System (SIC), maintained by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), continued its downward trend in April 2025. Although this does not confirm a recession, it indicates an economic slowdown in the country.
The SIC provides timely insights into Mexico’s economic behavior and contributes to the analysis of economic cycles. It consists of two composite indicators:
- Coincident Index: Reflects the overall state of the economy and its turning points.
- Leading Index: Aims to anticipate the turning points of the Coincident Index.
April 2025 Indicators Analysis
According to Inegi, the Coincident Index stood at 99.6 points in April, below its long-term trend and down by 0.05 points from March.
This marks the seventh consecutive month that the Coincident Index has been below its long-term trend.
“Although there are no consecutive monthly declines, the downward trend of the indicator is clear. It does not confirm a recession but evidences an economic slowdown, consistent with the latest published data from Mexico,” explained Gabriela Siller, director of analysis at Grupo Financiero Base.
Meanwhile, the Leading Index was at 99.8 points in April, below its long-term trend and up by 0.09 points from March, as per Inegi.
Siller noted that the Leading Index’s decline is in line with expectations of continued economic slowdown in Mexico. Combined with the intermittent drops in the Coincident Index, she anticipates that Mexico’s economic slowdown will persist throughout the year.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the Cyclical Indicators System (SIC) and its components?
The SIC, maintained by Inegi, tracks Mexico’s economic behavior. It consists of two composite indicators: the Coincident Index, reflecting the overall economic state and turning points, and the Leading Index, anticipating the Coincident Index’s turning points.
- What do the April 2025 indicator values indicate?
The Coincident Index was at 99.6 points, below its long-term trend, signaling an economic slowdown. The Leading Index was at 99.8 points, also below its long-term trend but up from March, suggesting continued slowdown expectations.
- How does Gabriela Siller interpret these indicators?
Siller, from Grupo Financiero Base, acknowledges the clear downward trend without consecutive monthly declines. She confirms that it indicates an economic slowdown, consistent with recent Mexican economic data.
- What does the future hold for Mexico’s economy based on these indicators?
Siller anticipates that Mexico’s economic slowdown will persist throughout 2025, given the intermittent drops in the Coincident Index and the decline in the Leading Index.
