How the Mexican Monsoon, Low Pressure Systems, Atmospheric Instability, and Tropical Waves Will Impact Mexico This Weekend

Web Editor

July 4, 2025

a satellite image of a storm in the ocean with a lot of rain and clouds above it and a map of the ar

Intense Rains Expected in Western, Northwestern, and Southeastern Regions

Saturday, July 5th:

  • Intense rainfall (75 to 150 mm) anticipated in Sinaloa and Nayarit.
  • Very strong rains (50 to 75 mm) expected in Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, and Zacatecas.
  • Scattered showers and strong rains forecast for Jalisco, Michoacán, Colima, Puebla, the State of Mexico, Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Veracruz (south).
  • Probability of showers with electrical activity in the Mexico City metropolitan area.
  • Rainfall may bring hail, leading to flooding, waterlogging, landslides, and increased river and stream levels.

Sunday, July 6th:

  • Heaviest rains (75 to 150 mm) expected in Jalisco and Nayarit, as well as the southern regions.
  • Very strong rains (50 to 75 mm) anticipated in Durango, Zacatecas, Michoacán, Colima, the State of Mexico, Puebla, Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Veracruz.
  • Strong rains expected across wide areas of central, northeastern, and southeastern zones, including Mexico City, Morelos, Guerrero, Tabasco, and the Yucatan Peninsula.
  • Accompanied by thunderstorms, strong winds, and possible hail.

Extreme Heat Despite Rainfall

Despite the rains, an extremely hot to very hot environment will persist, mainly in the northwestern, northern, and Yucatan Peninsula regions:

  • Temperatures over 45°C expected in Baja California and Sonora.
  • Temperatures between 40°C and 45°C in Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, and Sinaloa.
  • Temperatures between 35°C and 40°C in Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Michoacán, Tabasco, Campeche, and Yucatán.

Recommendations:

Given the forecast of intense rains and extreme heat, authorities advise taking precautions, avoiding crossing flooded rivers or streets, and staying hydrated, especially in high-temperature areas.

Key Questions and Answers

  • Q: What weather systems will impact Mexico this weekend? A: The Mexican monsoon, low pressure systems, atmospheric instability, and tropical waves will influence the weather across Mexico.
  • Q: Where and when will intense rains occur? A: Intense rainfall is expected in Sinaloa, Nayarit, and various regions on both Saturday and Sunday. Heaviest rains are forecast for Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern areas on Sunday.
  • Q: What temperatures can be expected despite the rains? A: Despite the rains, extremely hot to very hot temperatures will persist in northwestern, northern, and Yucatan Peninsula regions.
  • Q: What precautions should be taken due to the weather conditions? A: Authorities recommend taking precautions, avoiding flooded areas, and staying hydrated, particularly in high-temperature zones.