Overview of the Situation
At the start of 2025, Mexico’s oil exports fell by 24.9% annually, marking its fourth consecutive double-digit decline and extending the streak of five quarters with contractions, according to data from Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
Key States Affected
Four states are primarily responsible for Mexico’s oil and gas extraction exports, with Campeche and Tabasco registering the highest volumes. However, both states experienced a decline in total exports due to the decrease in oil production.
Pemex’s Role
Héctor Magaña Rodríguez, an economic analyst, explained that the primary cause of the decline was reduced crude oil and derivative exports by Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex). This was anticipated by Pemex’s own strategic plan, focusing on internal refining more and dealing with the natural decline of mature fields.
Impact on Tabasco and Campeche
Tabasco and Campeche accounted for 93.3% of Mexico’s oil exports in the first quarter of 2025, with Tabasco experiencing a 15.9% annual drop in total exports, amounting to $1.955 billion.
The oil extraction and gas sector dominates Tabasco’s economy, with $1.535 billion in exports during the first quarter, a 28% decrease compared to the same period the previous year.
Historical Dependence on Oil
Both Tabasco and Campeche have suffered from the decline in Pemex’s production for years. Their economies are heavily reliant on the oil industry, leading to economic fluctuations tied to the petroleum sector.
Unlike Tabasco and Veracruz, which have diversified their economies with external sales, Campeche’s oil exports make up 98% of its total state exports.
Consequences for Local Economy
Magaña stated that a contraction in oil exports typically results in reduced income for local businesses and state coffers, potentially leading to staff cuts or fewer job opportunities for local contractors.
Campeche: The Most Significant Contributor
As Mexico’s most important state for crude oil exports, Campeche reported $2.481 billion in oil extraction and gas export revenues during the first quarter of 2025, representing a 23.5% annual decline.
This figure is the lowest since the second quarter of 2020, when exports totaled $1.723 billion.
Magaña noted that Pemex has experienced seven consecutive quarters of production decline, prioritizing domestic refinery supply over foreign sales. The export decline in these states reflects Pemex’s ongoing financial and operational challenges, which local economies in Campeche and Tabasco have been adjusting to for some time.
