Overview of the Current Situation
In June, Mexico experienced a net loss of 46,378 formal jobs, marking the worst June for the formal labor market since 2002. This trend has continued for nine years, with June being a month of job losses in each instance. Out of the ten Junes with recorded data since 1994, five have shown significant job losses.
Historical Context and Comparison
- The current job losses are reminiscent of previous recessionary periods in Mexico, such as 2001, 2002, 1995, and 2020.
- In 2019, during a recession, there were still 289,301 new formal jobs created in the first half of the year.
- The current job creation is the weakest since 2009, with 306,942 net job losses recorded in the first half of that year.
June 2025 Job Losses and Trends
June 2025 saw a net loss of 46,378 formal jobs, with 18,329 eventual positions created and 64,707 permanent jobs lost. This represents an increase in net dismissals compared to June 2024, which saw 29,555 net dismissals.
Since April, this has been the third consecutive month of job losses, totaling 139,444 net dismissals in the first half of 2025. Only 87,287 new formal jobs were created during this period, a 70.4% decrease from the 295,058 new jobs created in the first half of 2024.
Sector-wise Job Losses
The construction sector experienced an 8.2% interannual decrease, while the extractive industry saw a 4.6% decline and the agropecuary sector dropped by 1.2%.
Eventual job positions also declined significantly, with a loss of 64,707 in June alone.
Expert Analysis
Gabriella Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco BASE, highlighted the severity of job creation this year by comparing it to 2019’s recession period, when 289,301 formal jobs were created in the first half.
Guillermina Rodríguez, subdirector of economic studies at Banamex, noted that the formal job creation trend is decelerating. She predicts moderate growth rates for the remainder of the year, with more than half of Mexico’s federal entities already experiencing job losses.
State-wise Job Losses
Seventeen Mexican states reported negative employment growth in June, with Tabasco experiencing the largest decline at -8.7%, followed by Campeche (-6.3%), Zacatecas (-3.3%), and Sinaloa (-2.7%).
