Background on Key Players
Nicolás Maduro, the embattled president of Venezuela, has struggled to respond effectively to Donald Trump’s campaign against the Aragua Train project. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio, a U.S. Senator, and Nayib Bukele, the President of El Salvador, have joined forces to target Maduro through the migration issue.
Marco Rubio has been in extensive talks with Carlos Vecchio, a prominent Venezuelan opposition leader based in Washington. The Biden administration’s previous strategy has been set aside, and a new critical path is being established, though it will be lengthy, it promises effectiveness.
Maduro, similar to Fidel Castro in the past, feels comfortable with Venezuela’s mass exodus. One out of every three Venezuelans has opted for emigration to revitalize their lives, with half of them belonging to the middle class.
Shifting U.S. Strategy and Opposition Reaction
The shift in the U.S. strategy has caused frustration and disappointment among Venezuela’s opposition. “The fraud was hot,” says a source close to the negotiations between Rubio and Bukele. “The vacuum left by the White House regarding the fraud committed by Nicolás Maduro was very uncomfortable.”
“The time for payment has come,” states another source. “Maduro lacks legitimacy and credibility to defend Venezuelans living in the United States.”
Bukele’s Proposal and Maduro’s Isolation
On the previous day, Bukele proposed a sharp exchange to Maduro: 252 political prisoners in exchange for 252 expelled Venezuelans to a jail in El Salvador. Bukele named some political prisoners, including Rafael Tudares, the son of Edmundo González (who won the presidential election last year with original ballots as their source of legitimacy) and journalist Roland Carreño.
Maduro has become increasingly isolated, with links to Petro and Lula deteriorating. Rubio has successfully built a solid anti-Maduro alliance, comprising Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, Paraguay, and Peru. Brazil and Colombia are unlikely to support him.
The Three-Variable Equation Against Maduro
Rubio’s plan to strangle Maduro consists of three variables: oil, migration, and strategic firepower. “The primary focus will be on the next 12 months through oil and migration.”
Rubio is aware that Latin America is fragmented and polarized, with Maduro’s dictatorship being one of the factors driving regional division.
Regional Support and Mexico’s Stance
The alliance against Maduro, consisting of Bukele, Milei, Noboa, Peña, and Boluarte, is crucial for the Celac’s progress. Mexico, however, shows no empathy towards this alliance and is unlikely to support it without their backing.
Brazil is interested in a trade agreement with Mexico but will not risk its reputation by defending Maduro. Meanwhile, Mexico has remained silent on U.S. sanctions against Cuban medical contractors.
Key Questions and Answers
- Who are the key players involved in this situation? Marco Rubio, Nayib Bukele, Carlos Vecchio, and Nicolás Maduro.
- What is the main issue at hand? The campaign against the Aragua Train project and Maduro’s handling of Venezuelan migration.
- What is Bukele’s proposal to Maduro? To exchange 252 political prisoners for 252 expelled Venezuelans.
- Which countries support the alliance against Maduro? Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, Paraguay, and Peru.
- What are the three variables in Rubio’s plan to pressure Maduro? Oil, migration, and strategic firepower.
- How has Mexico reacted to the situation? Mexico has shown no support for the alliance against Maduro and remains silent on U.S. sanctions against Cuban medical contractors.
