Introduction
In the United States, businesses, retailers, farmers, and consumers affected by President Donald Trump’s tariffs are natural allies of Mexico. As tensions escalate, Mexico must strategically engage these groups to counteract the potential harm caused by the tariffs.
Immediate Actions for July
The Mexican government should implement and coordinate its response through private business, economic, and communication channels. The primary objective is to demonstrate the mutual costs of these tariffs before their implementation.
Strengthen the T-MEC/USMCA
The main message should be that unilateral tariffs violate the spirit and letter of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (T-MEC/USMCA), which both countries have maintained for over 40 years and that have been highly beneficial to all three nations.
Establish a “War Room” in Key US Locations
The Mexican government should set up a rapid response team, similar to the one used during T-MEC negotiations, to coordinate all efforts around the clock.
Legal and Economic Retaliation
Mexico should prepare for potential legal and economic retaliation by having the private sector develop a list of countermeasures.
- The Mexican Secretariat of Economy should draft a list of retaliatory measures, but it should not be the government that publishes it immediately. Instead, this highly strategic list should come from leading private business chambers and confederations such as the Coordinating Council of Business (CCE), COPARMEX, CANACINTRA, CANACO, SERVYTUR, COMCE – Mexican Council for Foreign Trade, ANTAD – National Association of Supermarkets and Department Stores, and ABM – Mexican Bankers Association. These organizations would showcase how thousands of US products would face reciprocal tariffs.
It is crucial that these actions emerge publicly from the private sector to prevent Trump from taking retaliatory measures against Mexico.
Design Retaliation to Target Politically Sensitive US Sectors and Districts
The retaliatory actions should aim to inflict specific damage on politically sensitive sectors and districts of key US politicians who support the tariffs.
- Agricultural Products: Corn, soybeans, pork, and dairy from key states in the agricultural belt (e.g., Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin).
- Manufactured Products: Specific products from key states in the manufacturing industry or symbolic items like Kentucky bourbon or Harley-Davidson motorcycles with high political visibility.
Formal Dispute Initiation
Mexico should formally announce its intention to initiate a dispute resolution process under Chapter 31 of the T-MEC/T-MEC. Although the process is lengthy, the announcement itself serves as a powerful short-term tool that demonstrates seriousness and frames US action as illegitimate.
Public Relations and Data War
It is urgent to commission and disseminate impact studies, publishing immediate reports in English detailing the exact cost of a 30% tariff for the average US family, the number of at-risk jobs (state by state), and specific price increases for key consumer goods (cars, avocados, electronics).
Media Bombardment
Mexico needs good and new messengers, such as Mexican and Mexican-American entrepreneurs, retailers, and public figures, to seek interviews on major US news channels (CNN, Fox News, Bloomberg).
- Follow this with opinion pieces in leading newspapers (Wall Street Journal, New York Times) and editorials on digital news platforms.
- Ensure the message is delivered in excellent English, clarifying that the new tariffs “represent a tax on US consumers and a threat to millions of US jobs.”
Activating Mexico’s Allies in the US
Simultaneously with the aforementioned campaign, Mexico should leverage its extensive network of allies in the US to create a national chorus of opposition against the tariffs.
The Business and Industrial Coalition
These are Mexico’s most powerful allies in the US. They are the people who would suffer significant multimillion-dollar losses due to the tariffs.
- US Chamber of Commerce: The largest business lobby group, typically opposed to tariffs.
- National Association of Manufacturers (NAM): Represents industries with highly integrated supply chains.
- Automotive Industry: Groups like the American Automotive Policy Council.
A 30% tariff would devastate the US automotive industry, where parts cross the border multiple times.
Retail and Technology Sectors
Companies like Walmart, Target, and leading technology firms facing higher costs should be targeted.
How to Mobilize So Many People in the US?
Provide specific state-level data on job losses and economic damage to empower them and encourage their public statements.
Coordinate messages and exert direct pressure on Congress and the White House—remember that these campaign actors must be separate from the Mexican government to prevent Trump from using this as an excuse for additional retaliation against Mexico.
It is urgent that the Mexican government hires lobbyists in Washington to open doors to Congress for Mexican industry representatives.
Mexican business councils (like CCE) should collaborate closely with their US counterparts.
The Agricultural Sector
A significant portion of the US agricultural sector depends on Mexico as a major export market. Mexico should not overlook the political influence of farmers and grain producers in key Midwestern states.
- American Farm Bureau Federation: A powerful national voice for farmers.
- National Corn Growers Association: A significant influence for corn producers.
- U.S. Meat Export Federation: A key organization for US meat exporters.
Mexico is an important market for US corn, pork, and dairy products. The threat of retaliatory tariffs would instantly mobilize them.
Mexico should make it clear that their products will top the list of retaliatory measures, giving them a strong self-interest to pressure against US tariffs.
State and Local Governments
Mexico should recognize that US governors and mayors often have a more practical view of trade due to their proximity to the people and clear visibility of harmful measures like tariffs used as political leverage.
- Target governors of border states: Texas, California, Arizona, and New Mexico. Their state economies are intricately linked to cross-border trade.
- Mayors of key cities: San Diego, Phoenix, El Paso, and Laredo, as well as industrial centers in the Midwest.
Mexico should establish direct contact with Mexican governors to cultivate a “governors’ alliance” against tariffs, providing municipal, county, and state-level data on negative impacts to empower them.
Lobbying in Washington DC – Allies and Research Centers in Congress
Target bipartisan members of Congress: Representatives and senators (both Republican and Democrat) who represent states with high levels of trade with Mexico.
Engage influential research centers and institutions like the Peterson Institute for International Economics to provide credible third-party validation that tariffs are a poor policy.
By executing this multifaceted strategy in the remaining weeks of July, Mexico aims to generate overwhelming internal opposition in the US, making the political cost of implementing a 30% tariff much greater for the US administration than any perceived benefits.
Conclusion
Independent of Trump’s past misunderstandings about international free trade, the reality is that he now wields significant political power. This sometimes causes us to forget that the opposition to using tariffs and protectionist measures as political leverage in the US is substantial.
It’s crucial for Mexico to understand that US businesses in manufacturing, agriculture, and other sectors are not contemplating Mexico’s ruin but rather their own in the US. This is why we say that Mexico is not alone, and that in the US, it has natural allies.
