Introduction
The recent US airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities have not triggered an uprising against the Islamic Republic, contradicting expectations set by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The notion that strategic bombings will erode civilian morale and turn them against their leaders is outdated and largely discredited.
Historical Context
Throughout history, strategic bombings have failed to incite popular revolts. Examples include the Spanish Civil War, World War II, and Israel’s bombardment of Gaza. The belief that such attacks will demoralize civilians and shift their allegiance against their leaders has been proven incorrect.
Case Studies
- World War II: Despite extensive bombing campaigns by the Allies, no popular uprisings occurred against Axis powers.
- Vietnam War: The US bombing campaign in North Vietnam, known as Operation Rolling Thunder, did not demoralize the Vietnamese people or provoke a popular revolt.
Public Resilience
People generally resist foreign bombardment, even when they dislike their own leaders. This is particularly true in proud nations with histories of foreign intervention, like Iran. The 1953 coup supported by the US and UK, which ended a fledgling democracy, has left deep scars in Iranian memory.
The Path to Change
While weakening Iran’s nuclear capabilities is a positive outcome, bombing campaigns are unlikely to bring about democratic change. The transformations of post-war Japan and Germany into democracies were facilitated by local elites under allied occupation, not through military intervention.
The Role of Iranian Public Opinion
A 2023 survey revealed that over 80% of Iranians prefer a democratic government. Bombing Iran might expose its military weakness but could also weaken the growing opposition. Renowned Iranian actor Reza Kianian’s response to the airstrikes exemplifies this sentiment, emphasizing his patriotism and resistance to external interference.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: Will bombing Iran lead to a popular uprising against the regime? A: Historical evidence and current Iranian sentiment suggest otherwise.
- Q: Can strategic bombings bring about democratic change? A: No, as demonstrated by post-WWII transformations in Japan and Germany.
- Q: How does the Iranian public view foreign intervention? A: With deep skepticism, as seen in their resistance to US and Israeli airstrikes.
