Overview
This week, Mexico will release crucial economic data, including the monthly performance of the economy and its various sectors, inflation trends, and final results from the latest Economic Censuses. Internationally, notable events include the US manufacturing PMI and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision.
Tuesday, July 23: Economic Activity
- Global Indicator of Economic Activity (May)
- Monthly Survey on Wholesale and Retail Companies (May)
- Monthly Services Survey (May)
- Results of the government securities auction
On Tuesday, the Global Indicator of Economic Activity will be published. This monthly estimate provides an up-to-date assessment of Mexico’s economic evolution, allowing for PIB projections. It measures activity in primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors, published by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) at the end of each month.
The Monthly Survey on Wholesale and Retail Companies (EMEC), also by Inegi, offers insights into sales, employed personnel, and wages in wholesale and retail establishments. This information is vital for analyzing internal trade behavior in Mexico and projecting its economic impact.
The Monthly Services Survey provides detailed information on revenues, employed personnel, and expenses in the tertiary sector, excluding retail. It helps evaluate short-term trends in private non-financial services and anticipate their contribution to economic growth.
As usual, the Bank of Mexico will announce the results of the government securities auction, including interest rates and amounts at which the Mexican government places debt with investors. These results serve as a gauge for market confidence in public finances, risk appetite, and expectations for monetary policy.
Wednesday, July 24: Oil Inventories
- Oil Inventory Report by IEA
Midweek, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) weekly oil inventory report will be released. This report provides information on crude oil storage levels in the United States, a critical indicator for energy markets as it reflects supply and demand dynamics. Its publication influences international oil prices.
Thursday, July 25: Inflation
- National Consumer Price Index (first half of July)
- National Survey of Construction Companies (May)
- Final figures from the 2024 Economic Censuses
- US Manufacturing PMI
- New unemployment insurance claims
- ECB monetary policy decision
On Thursday, the National Consumer Price Index for the first half of July will be published. This index measures the quarterly variation in representative goods and services for consumption in Mexico, allowing for inflation pressure evaluation and adjusting price expectations.
The National Survey of Construction Companies (ENEC) collects data on production, personnel, and wages in construction companies. It enables the monthly performance analysis of this crucial activity for investment and employment, published monthly by Inegi with national and federated entity-level details.
The US Manufacturing PMI measures activity in the industrial sector, based on surveys of purchasing managers. It’s a key benchmark for the world’s largest economy, signaling changes in the business cycle—expansion or contraction.
New unemployment insurance claims are a weekly indicator of the number of individuals seeking unemployment assistance for the first time in the United States. It’s an immediate labor market gauge and a significant component for evaluating economic activity, published weekly by the Department of Labor and influencing financial markets.
The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday. These decisions, made during scheduled meetings, aim to control inflation and maintain economic stability within the Eurozone. The ECB’s monetary policy decision significantly impacts currencies, bonds, and global economic growth expectations.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the Global Indicator of Economic Activity? It’s a monthly estimate by Inegi that assesses Mexico’s economic evolution, allowing for PIB projections across primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors.
- Why are oil inventory reports by the IEA important? These reports provide insights into crude oil storage levels in the US, reflecting supply and demand dynamics that influence international oil prices.
- What does the National Consumer Price Index measure? It measures quarterly variations in representative goods and services for consumption, helping evaluate inflation pressures and adjust price expectations.
- How does the US Manufacturing PMI impact global markets? As a key benchmark for the world’s largest economy, it signals changes in the business cycle—expansion or contraction—and influences financial markets.
- What is the significance of new unemployment claims? This weekly indicator reflects the number of individuals seeking unemployment assistance for the first time, serving as an immediate labor market gauge and influencing economic activity evaluations.
- How does the ECB’s monetary policy decision affect global economies? These decisions, aimed at controlling inflation and maintaining stability within the Eurozone, significantly impact currencies, bonds, and global economic growth expectations.
