Introduction
On April 15, the Mexican government unveiled its “National Development Plan 2025-2030” (PND). The plan reportedly incorporated extensive public consultations since January, yet there’s uncertainty about the extent of citizen proposals integrated into it. Critics suspect that this process may have been a superficial, demagogic exercise. The document repeatedly emphasizes the official propaganda that the PND aims to ensure continuity and establish “the Second Level of this Fourth Transformation, consolidating a development model based on Mexican Humanism” (AMLO’s words).
The 100 Commitments for the Second Level of Transformation
The first section of the PND lists “100 Commitments for the Second Level of Transformation.” These are admirable goals, but the plan fails to outline the costs associated with achieving them. Had the government included estimated costs alongside each commitment, it would have provided a more realistic and transparent approach. Moreover, the PND does not propose any fiscal or financial reform that would be essential for securing the resources needed to fund its ambitious plans.
Diagnosis: A Triumphalist and Fantasious Narrative
The second section purports to offer a comprehensive diagnosis of Mexico’s current situation. However, it presents a triumphalist and fantasious narrative that ignores the existing problems and precarious state of numerous sectors inherited by the current government from its predecessor. These issues include unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt, growing healthcare shortages, educational setbacks, stagnant investment and productivity levels, and the lowest GDP growth in the past five sexenios.
Objectives and Strategies: Vague and Unactionable
The third section extends over 35 pages, detailing objectives and strategies. Regrettably, none of these strategies explain how the respective objectives will be achieved. Each strategy begins with voluntary phrases like “promote,” “strengthen,” or “implement” without providing concrete action plans.
Indicators for Monitoring Progress: Questionable and Unreliable
The fourth section describes extensive tracking indicators to measure the PND’s progress. While each indicator sets quantitative baselines for 2024 and targets for 2030, many rely on simple surveys without further details. Others are simply unconvincing. For instance, page 155 claims that the average replacement rate for pensions should rise from an unbelievable 70% in 2023 to an astonishing 90% by 2030. How is this achievable without pension reform?
Plan México: A List of Wishes Rather Than Realistic Goals
The final section outlines Plan México, another list of desirable goals. However, it fails to acknowledge that most of these objectives depend on the successful renegotiation of the T-MEC, which remains uncertain under the Trump administration.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the purpose of Mexico’s National Development Plan 2025-2030? The plan aims to ensure continuity and establish a development model based on Mexican Humanism, according to President AMLO.
- How detailed are the plan’s commitments and strategies? The plan lacks specific cost estimates for its 100 commitments and provides vague, actionless strategies.
- Does the PND accurately diagnose Mexico’s current situation? Critics argue that the plan ignores significant problems and the precarious state of various sectors inherited from the previous government.
- Are the PND’s objectives and strategies actionable? No; each strategy lacks concrete plans on how to achieve the respective objectives.
- How reliable are the PND’s tracking indicators? Many indicators rely on simple surveys or set unrealistic targets, casting doubt on their credibility.
- What is the relationship between the PND and Plan México? Most of Plan México’s goals depend on the successful renegotiation of the T-MEC, which remains uncertain.
For the Sheinbaum administration to fulfill its accountability obligations, it should issue a document at the end of its term comparing the 2030 results with the respective indicators set in this PND. In conclusion, this plan lacks substance and realism, rendering it unhelpful as a guide for public policy under this government.
