Overview of Fibras’ Performance in 2025
The Industrial Real Estate Firms (Fibras) in Mexico have demonstrated robust growth in their yields on the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV) this year. The Fibras Index has seen an 18.02% increase, reaching 279.69 units, outpacing the S&P/BMV IPC’s 14.41% rise to 56,650.26 points.
Key Contributors to Fibras’ Success
- Growth in Surface Area: The expansion of industrial real estate space has played a crucial role in the Fibras’ performance.
- Rental Income Growth: Rental income has increased, surpassing inflation rates.
- Strategic Expansion Plans: Fibras have pursued aggressive expansion through developments and strategic acquisitions.
Expert Insights and Challenges
Armando Rodríguez, General Director of Signum Research, attributes the Fibras’ success to capitalizing on logistics demand, resulting in high occupancy levels, double-digit rental increases, and ambitious expansion plans.
However, Rodríguez warns of potential risks and structural challenges. A possible global or local economic slowdown in 2025 could dampen demand for industrial spaces and hotel occupancy, especially in business travel. This would also affect retail tenants’ sales.
Positive Outlook from Analysts
Monex Casa de Bolsa analysts maintain a positive outlook on Fibras, citing growth in surface area, gradual rental increases relative to inflation, and attractive distributions with upside potential (IS25 dividends +10.0% vs 2T24).
They expect the Fibras’ attractive and resilient outlook to persist despite challenging economic conditions in Mexico and the United States.
Increased commercial visibility is expected to help assess nearshoring’s future and its implications for Mexico’s leadership in commerce with the United States.
Top-Performing Fibras
- Fibra Uno: With a 30.33% advance to 26.68 pesos per unit, Fibra Uno leads the market as Mexico’s largest real estate investment trust listed on the Mexican stock exchange.
- Fibra Monterrey: Investing primarily in industrial real estate, Fibra Monterrey’s shares have risen 23.13% to 13.57 pesos.
- Fibra Danhos: Specializing in shopping centers and mixed-use developments, Fibra Danhos has gained 24.73% to 25.16 pesos per unit.
- Fibra Prologis: With a 24.39% increase to 70.73 pesos per unit, Fibra Prologis focuses on industrial and commercial properties.
- Fibra Macquarie: Specializing in industrial and commercial real estate, Fibra Macquarie has advanced 7.50% to 30.93 pesos per unit.
Underperforming Fibras
In contrast, Fibras in segments like hospitality, commercial, and others have experienced declines in their certificates this year.
- Fibra Hotel: Down 14.72%, Fibra Hotel has struggled.
- Fibra Inn: Fibra Inn has dropped 10.13%.
- Promotora de Hoteles City Express: The only bright spot in the hospitality sector, it has improved by 6.26%.
- Fibra Plus and Fibra Hipotecaria: Both have declined 20.71% and 15.45%, respectively, in the commercial real estate sector.
- Fibra Shop: With a slight 0.23% decline, it represents the commercial real estate sector.
Resilience in Challenging Sectors
Armando Rodríguez highlights the resilience of the commercial and mixed-use segments. Quality shopping centers are regaining momentum with rising occupancy and improved tenant sales, while mixed-use portfolios benefit from diversification (incorporating industrial, educational, and hospitality components to counterbalance weaknesses in traditional office spaces).
The hotel segment is transitioning towards post-pandemic normalcy, facing cost challenges but with a differentiated structure and optimized portfolios (incorporating higher-category hotels and renegotiating terms with operators).
