Introduction
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted a negative growth for Mexico in 2025, with an estimated -0.2%. This prediction comes after six months of consecutive decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measured against the previous trimester.
Economic Indicators Signaling Slowdown
Several economic indicators suggest a deceleration in Mexico’s GDP. The Global Activity Index (GAI), which tracks the short-term evolution of the real economy, reported a monthly decrease of -0.2% in January and zero annual growth (0.0%). This indicates signs of stagnation, with secondary activities—those that transform raw materials into finished or manufactured products—contracting by -2.8%.
Furthermore, the National Association of Self-Service and Department Stores (ANTAD) reported a -1.7% annual decline in sales for established stores in February. Although March’s data showed a 1.0% annual growth, the perceived trend is one of diminished consumer spending, as it was the lowest March growth since 2019.
Expert Consensus and Future Prospects
Beyond hard data, the perspective of leading financial analysts and economists also points to a slowdown. The Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas (IMEF) survey reveals that experts anticipate a 0.2% expansion in 2025, down from the previous 0.6%, marking the second substantial decrease in growth expectations for this year.
The challenges to overcome this slowdown are limited, given the external uncertainties—such as the US trade policy under the current administration—combined with internal uncertainties stemming from ongoing constitutional reforms. Investors remain hesitant, which will continue to affect employment and consumer spending.
Government’s Response and Its Limitations
The Mexican authorities’ capacity to implement stimulus policies is currently restricted to rhetoric. With a massive fiscal deficit to address and scarce resources for investment generation, the anticipated recovery hinges on either a resurgence in export growth or a rebound in government-supported consumer spending.
Though the depreciation of the currency and perceived safety from US government attacks may seem positive, Mexico’s economy is already bearing the brunt of these changes—both domestically and internationally. A recession triggered by government shifts should not be a source of pride.
About Rodolfo Campuzano Meza
Rodolfo Campuzano Meza is the General Director of INVEX Operadora de Fondos de Inversión.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the IMF’s prediction for Mexico’s growth in 2025? The IMF forecasts a negative growth of -0.2% for Mexico in 2025.
- What economic indicators suggest a slowdown in Mexico’s GDP? The Global Activity Index (GAI) and sales data from the National Association of Self-Service and Department Stores (ANTAD) indicate a deceleration in Mexico’s GDP.
- What do leading economists and analysts predict for Mexico’s growth in 2025? Experts surveyed by the Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas (IMEF) anticipate a 0.2% expansion in 2025, down from the previous 0.6%.
- What are the limitations to overcoming Mexico’s growth challenges? External uncertainties, such as US trade policy, and internal uncertainties from constitutional reforms contribute to investor hesitation, affecting employment and consumer spending.
- What is the government’s capacity to implement stimulus policies? The Mexican authorities’ ability to enact stimulus measures is currently limited, relying on export growth or increased government-supported consumer spending to drive recovery.
