Overview
The upcoming week brings a series of crucial economic indicators from Mexico and the United States, covering various sectors, overall economic activity, inflation, retail sales, and new GDP growth figures for the second quarter of the year.
Monday, August 18: Manufacturing
Encuesta Mensual de la Industria Manufacturera (June)
- The week begins with the release of Mexico’s Monthly Manufacturing Survey (EMIM) by INEGI, which measures the evolution of production and sales in Mexico’s manufacturing sector. These data points provide insights into the health of one of Mexico’s most dynamic economic branches.
Tuesday, August 19: Economic Activity
Indicador Oportuno de la Actividad Económica (IOAE) (July)
- The IOAE, which estimates the monthly PIB evolution, is published in Mexico. This preliminary overview helps analysts anticipate trends in consumption, investment, and production before official data is released.
- Results of the government bond auction: These results showcase the placement of public debt at various maturities. They indicate the government’s financing cost, influence interest rates, and serve as a reference for investors.
Wednesday, August 20: Fed Minutes and Oil Inventories
Minutes of the Fed’s Monetary Policy Meeting
- The United States will release the Fed’s monetary policy meeting minutes. This document allows understanding of the arguments presented by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) during their discussion to determine the reference rate’s path.
- Oil inventories report by the IEA in the US: This report provides insights into crude oil stocks.
- Annual inflation in the UK (July): This data measures price variations of a basket of goods and services.
- Annual inflation in the Eurozone (July): This data measures price variations of a basket of goods and services within the Eurozone.
Thursday, August 21: Retail Sales
Mexico’s Monthly Retail Sales (June)
- Mexico’s monthly retail sales figures are released, offering insights into consumer behavior in commercial establishments and reflecting the strength of domestic demand, a key driver of GDP.
- Monthly Services Survey (June): This INEGI survey measures income and performance in sectors like transportation, accommodation, culture, and recreation, which together account for over 60% of Mexico’s GDP.
- Monthly Business Enterprises Survey (June): This survey reports on wholesale and retail sales in Mexico, helping anticipate shifts in consumption patterns and distribution, crucial for measuring consumer confidence and business dynamics.
- Minutes of the Banco de México’s Monetary Policy Meeting: The central bank’s governing board discusses inflation, economic activity, and economic risks in these minutes, offering signals about the interest rate trajectory and inflation in Mexico.
- New US unemployment insurance claims: This weekly figure helps measure the strength of the US labor market progressively. Low numbers suggest dynamism, while increases may indicate job and economic deterioration.
- Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Indicator (August): This index measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
- US Manufacturing PMI (August): The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the United States.
- US Services PMI (August): The services Purchasing Managers’ Index for the United States.
Friday, August 22: Second Quarter GDP
Mexico’s Inflation (First Half of August):
- Mexico’s inflation report for the first half of August is expected, measuring price variations in a basket of goods and services. This directly impacts monetary policy, purchasing power, and interest rate expectations.
- Global Economic Activity Indicator (IGAE) (June): This monthly estimation of Mexico’s GDP allows for timely assessment of the country’s economic performance, revealing short-term production, service, consumption, and exportation trends.
- Mexico’s Second Quarter GDP: The second estimation of Mexico’s GDP growth measures the overall economic growth. It is the broadest reference for Mexico’s economy and is used to evaluate the effectiveness of economic policies.
- Jerome Powell’s Statements: The President of the Fed’s remarks at the annual Jackson Hole central bankers’ symposium will be closely watched. This event is crucial for markets and the economy, potentially revealing signals about US monetary policy.
