Overview and Background
Hurricane Erin, the first major storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, has struck the Caribbean islands with strong winds and heavy rainfall on Monday. As it moves northwest at 16 km/h, there is growing concern about storm surges and flooding along the eastern coast of the United States this week, even without a direct landfall.
Hurricane Erin’s Intensity and Size
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Erin reached wind speeds of up to 220 km/h and is described as “unusually large,” with hurricane-force winds extending up to 128 km and tropical storm-force winds reaching 370 km.
The outer bands of the storm are expected to bring rain to Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas throughout Monday. Rainfall amounts could reach up to 15 cm in these regions, as reported by the NHC.
Impact on Eastern US Coast
Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the NHC, warned Americans not to assume that the hurricane won’t impact them just because its path is currently over open waters.
“Nothing could be further from the truth for parts of the central Atlantic, especially off the coast of North Carolina,” Rhome stated. “We’re expecting dangerous ocean conditions, coastal flooding, and potentially life-threatening storm surges along the eastern US coast from Wednesday through Thursday.”
Starting Tuesday, a significant portion of the coast will face a high risk of dangerous surf and rip currents that push water away from the shore.
In Puerto Rico, a US territory of over 3 million residents still recovering from Hurricane María in 2017, homes and roads have been flooded, and there have been power outages, though most of the territory has had power restored.
Connection to Climate Change
Daniel Gilford, a scientist at Climate Central, told AFP that Erin is “one of the fastest and most intense storms on modern record.” He explained that the storm has intensified due to warm ocean surface temperatures, acting like a heat machine that extracts energy from the ocean’s surface and converts it into wind.
According to Climate Central, Erin traveled over waters that were up to 100 times more likely to experience extreme warming due to climate change.
The NHC forecasts that Erin will continue on a northwesterly path, passing between the eastern US coast and Bermuda mid-week.
Michael Brennan, director of the NHC, stated that Erin is expected to “grow quite spectacularly,” creating extremely hazardous maritime conditions across the western Atlantic and increasing the risk of dangerous and potentially deadly surf and rip currents along almost the entire eastern US coast.
Additional concerns include coastal flooding, especially in islands off the coast of North Carolina. Preventive evacuation orders have been issued in some areas.
Anticipated Intense Season
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from early June to late November, is expected to be more active than usual this year, according to US weather authorities.
In 2024, the region experienced several deadly storms, including Hurricane Helene, which caused over 200 deaths in the southeastern US. This year, heightened tropical activity is anticipated due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, combined with an active African western monsoon, as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Scientists largely agree that human-induced climate change is amplifying tropical cyclones.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is Hurricane Erin? Hurricane Erin is the first major storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, currently impacting the Caribbean islands with strong winds and heavy rainfall.
- Why is Erin a concern for the US East Coast? Despite not making landfall, Erin’s northwesterly movement could bring dangerous storm surges, coastal flooding, and life-threatening conditions to the eastern US coast from Wednesday through Thursday.
- How does climate change relate to Hurricane Erin? Scientists agree that human-induced climate change is amplifying tropical cyclones, and Erin’s rapid intensification is partly attributed to warmer ocean surface temperatures caused by climate change.
- What is the expected activity level of this hurricane season? The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is anticipated to be more active than usual due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African western monsoon.
