Background on Pemex and Relevance of the Rating Change
Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), Mexico’s state-owned petroleum company, is currently rated B3 with a negative outlook by Moody’s Ratings. The agency is reviewing the rating for a potential upgrade of one to two notches, contingent on details about Pemex’s upcoming operations over the next 60 to 90 days.
Roxana Muñoz, a Moody’s analyst specializing in Pemex, explained to El Economista that the Strategic Plan 2025-2030 is a positive development, showcasing better coordination among the federal government, Hacienda (the Ministry of Finance), the Secretariat of Energy, Pemex, and development banks. The federal government’s support for the company has become more strategic and robust.
Current Rating Factors
Pemex’s credit rating is based on its intrinsic risk, debt profile, and government support. Last year, the support level was downgraded from very high to high due to a reduction in Pemex’s tax rate and simplification of exploration and production taxes into a single utility-sharing right. This right further decreased to 30% of commercialization revenue for crude oil and 11.63% for natural gas in 2025. Additionally, the government provided compensations for various payments and funding to Pemex.
Although Pemex’s intrinsic risk remains, the upcoming changes in the Strategic Plan will significantly impact its debt profile. Moody’s will assess how Pemex restructures short-term debts with near maturities in 2026 and 2027, as well as its debt to suppliers.
Debt Profile and Government Support
Muñoz emphasized that the key factor will be how Pemex adjusts its debt structure with banks, transitioning from short-term to medium or long-term debt. This shift could improve Pemex’s working capital.
Furthermore, clarity on how the Mexican government will allocate the US$12 billion obtained for Pemex’s capitalization is crucial for the rating change.
Pemex’s Productive Projects
Moody’s will also consider Pemex’s productive projects, especially exploration and production of hydrocarbons, as well as refining and transforming combustibles. Development banks will play a vital role in the coming weeks.
The agency anticipates that by mid-2025 or early 2026, the allocation of mixed exploration and production contracts to private entities will be announced. Investor reactions to Pemex’s proposals in this area will determine whether production targets of 1.8 million barrels of liquid hydrocarbons can be met by 2030.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is Pemex, and why is its credit rating important? Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) is Mexico’s state-owned petroleum company. Its credit rating impacts investor confidence and access to capital, affecting its ability to finance operations and growth.
- What factors currently influence Pemex’s credit rating? The rating is based on Pemex’s intrinsic risk, debt profile, and government support. Recent changes include a reduction in tax rates and simplification of exploration and production taxes.
- How will the Strategic Plan 2025-2030 impact Pemex’s credit rating? The plan aims to improve coordination among government entities and strengthen support for Pemex. Its implementation will influence Pemex’s debt profile and working capital.
- What role do development banks play in Pemex’s rating change? Development banks will support Pemex’s transition from short-term to medium or long-term debt, which could improve its creditworthiness.
- Why is clarity on government funding for Pemex crucial? Understanding how the Mexican government will allocate US$12 billion for Pemex’s capitalization is essential for assessing the company’s financial stability and growth prospects.
