Introduction
The Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas (IMEF) has slightly improved its growth outlook for Mexico this year, thanks to the postponement of tariffs by the United States and a better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year. However, the organization warns that the growth remains weak.
IMEF’s Revised Growth Projection
During a press conference via video link, Gabriela Gutiérrez, national president of IMEF, announced that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast had been revised upwards from 0.1% to 0.4% for the year.
“Our monthly survey reflects the unexpected increase in the GDP reported for the second quarter, which was 0.7%, and the expectation for the year-end is that the economy will grow by 0.4%, compared to the previous month’s data of 0.1%. However, this figure still reflects a very weak performance for 2025, as reported by the IMEF Indicator just two weeks ago,” Gutiérrez said to the press.
Impact of Tariff Delays
Víctor Manuel Herrera, president of the National Committee for Economic Studies at IMEF, highlighted that another factor contributing to the improved growth projections is the delayed implementation of tariffs by the United States.
“The announcements have been to implement new tariffs, then cancel them, then postpone them, and ultimately, there haven’t been significant changes, except for a few exceptions… This has led to interruptions in export flows, followed by their subsequent reactivation,” Herrera explained.
Inflation and Interest Rate Forecasts
Regarding inflation, IMEF maintained its outlook at 4.0% for the year’s end, while predicting that the Banco de México’s (Banxico) interest rate would reach 7.25%.
Rescue of Pemex
In relation to the Strategic Plan for Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and the issuance of Pre-Capitalization Notes, Víctor Manuel Herrera stated that this provides relief for the heavily indebted global petrolier.
“Pemex’s ratings now face less pressure since there are those who will bail them out through these types of emissions, but the problem is that the rescuer will have to take on additional debt to cover those obligations,” Herrera noted.
Pemex Strategic Plan
In recent weeks, the government presented the Pemex Strategic Plan aiming for the company to become self-sufficient by 2027, meaning it won’t require federal assistance for debt obligations.
- The plan includes a $250 billion peso fund for Pemex infrastructure projects, with around 50% financed by development banks.
- It also aims to increase natural gas production, including a “production from complex geology deposits” strategy, which some analysts interpret as a return to fracking despite government denials.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What changes did IMEF make to its growth outlook for Mexico? A: IMEF revised its GDP growth projection upwards from 0.1% to 0.4% for the year, citing tariff delays by the United States and better-than-expected economic performance in the first half of 2025.
- Q: How have tariff delays affected Mexico’s growth prospects? A: Tariff delays by the United States have contributed to improved growth projections, as they have caused interruptions in export flows followed by their subsequent reactivation.
- Q: What is the current inflation and interest rate forecast by IMEF? A: IMEF maintains a 4.0% inflation outlook for the year’s end and predicts that Banxico’s interest rate will reach 7.25%.
- Q: How does the Pemex Strategic Plan aim to improve the company’s situation? A: The Pemex Strategic Plan aims to make the company self-sufficient by 2027, with a $250 billion peso fund for infrastructure projects and plans to increase natural gas production, including a controversial “production from complex geology deposits” strategy interpreted by some as a return to fracking.
