Overview of Querétaro’s Economic Performance
Querétaro, Mexico – The retail sector in Querétaro experienced a 4.1% annual decline in the first quarter of 2025, marking the most significant drop among Mexico’s 32 federal entities. This downturn mirrors the national trend, as retail sales also decreased by 0.4% during the same period, according to preliminary data from the Indicador Trimestral de la Actividad Económica Estatal (ITAEE) by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI).
Ranking of Entities with Negative Variations
Following Querétaro (-4.1%), Sinaloa (-2.6%), Jalisco (-2.6%), Colima (-2.3%), and Sonora (-2.1%) reported the highest negative variations above 2%, placing them among the top five entities with the most substantial declines.
Retail Activity Trends
Out of the 32 entities, 21 experienced a decline in retail activity during the first quarter of 2025, while only 11 reported annual increases. The most significant retail growth was observed in Guerrero (14.5%), Tlaxcala (3%), Estado de México (2%), Michoacán (1.7%), and Puebla (1.2%).
Historical Context and Impact
With the recent decline, Querétaro’s retail sector has recorded three consecutive quarters with negative annual variations. In the third quarter of 2024, retail activity decreased by 0.1%, followed by a decline of -1.1% in the subsequent period, and a more substantial drop of -4.1% in Q1 2025.
In 2024, Querétaro’s retail sector grew by a modest 1.7% annually, compared to the 8.2% growth achieved in 2023. The annual variation experienced by Querétaro’s retail sector in Q1 2025 is the lowest in recent years, only surpassed by the declines recorded in 2020 when the global economy was weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2020, Querétaro’s retail sector began the year with a 1.6% growth rate, but subsequent quarters saw negative variations of -22.3%, -7.2%, and -3.8%.
Retail Sector’s Role in Querétaro’s Economy
The retail sector has been a significant contributor to Querétaro’s economy, employing 126,278 registered workers in the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) by July of the current year. This figure accounts for 17.7% of the state’s total registered workers.
Retail is the third-largest employer in Querétaro, trailing only the transformation industry (35%) and services for businesses, individuals, and households (19.3%). However, the retail sector has shown the highest growth in formal employment over the past year, with a 3.6% annual increase recorded in July.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main reason for Querétaro’s retail sector decline? The decline in Querétaro’s retail sector is primarily due to the broader economic trends affecting Mexico and the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Which entities experienced the most significant retail declines? Sinaloa (-2.6%), Jalisco (-2.6%), Colima (-2.3%), and Sonora (-2.1%) reported the highest negative variations above 2%, placing them among the top five entities with substantial declines.
- How has Querétaro’s retail sector performed historically? Querétaro’s retail sector has experienced fluctuations, with growth rates peaking at 8.2% in 2023 and a modest 1.7% growth in 2024. The Q1 2025 decline of -4.1% is the lowest in recent years, only surpassed by the 2020 declines caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
- What is the retail sector’s role in Querétaro’s economy? The retail sector is a significant contributor to Querétaro’s economy, employing 17.7% of the state’s registered workers and being the third-largest employer after the transformation industry and services sector. The retail sector has shown robust growth in formal employment over the past year.
