Economic Landscape and Telecom Sector Performance
The beginning of 2025 was marked by a complex economic environment, with fears of slowdown and high regulatory uncertainty. However, the second quarter results show clear signs of recovery and stability.
According to INEGI, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter, dispelling concerns of a technical recession.
Simultaneously, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased its growth forecast for Mexico by 0.5 percentage points, and the Bank of Mexico’s Expectations Survey also revised its estimates upwards.
Telecom Sector Overview
This macroeconomic rebound coincides with the telecommunications sector’s transition phase. The redefinition of regulatory frameworks and the creation of new regulatory bodies are shaping a horizon of greater certainty.
Despite lingering doubts about implementation timelines and specific mechanisms, the new institutional framework opens opportunities for a renewed cycle of investment and effective competition in a capital-intensive sector.
Sector Performance in Q2 2025
The telecommunications sector reported revenues of $154,119 million Mexican pesos (mdp) in Q2 2025, marking a yearly increase of 4.3%, the highest since Q3 2024 and significantly above the national economy’s growth of 1.2%.
The dynamism was concentrated in the fixed and mobile segments, while pay TV further declined.
Fixed and Mobile Segments on the Rise
Fixed services reached $26,160 million MDP (mdp), accounting for 17% of the total sector, with a growth of 4.6%. This improvement was supported by broadband subscriptions and corporate market expansion.
In parallel, the mobile segment generated $92,468 million MDP, equivalent to 60% of total revenues, with a yearly increase of 6.5%. This uptick was driven by both service growth (5.3%) and equipment sales recovery (7.3%).
Pay TV and Convergent Services in Decline
In contrast, pay TV and convergent services experienced a 1.3% annual decline due to a 6.8% decrease in subscribers, marking 16 consecutive quarters of losses partially offset by higher revenues linked to internet provision.
Second Half of 2025 Outlook
Q2 2025 marks a promising turning point for Mexico’s telecommunications sector, with economic recovery and reduced international volatility creating more favorable conditions.
However, consolidating this trend will depend on timely, accurate, and effective regulatory framework definition, as well as companies’ ability to maintain their investment plans.
If the economic rebound persists and regulatory certainty advances in promoting competitive leveling and reducing operator asymmetries, greater sector dynamism is expected in the second half of the year.
The end of H1 2025 presents a snapshot of a sector transitioning from uncertainty to regaining dynamism and laying the groundwork for a new development phase.
Key Questions and Answers
- What was the economic environment at the start of 2025? The beginning of 2025 was marked by a complex economic environment with fears of slowdown and high regulatory uncertainty.
- How did the telecom sector perform in Q2 2025? The telecommunications sector reported a 4.3% yearly revenue increase, with fixed and mobile segments driving growth.
- What are the prospects for the second half of 2025? The second half of 2025 is expected to see greater sector dynamism if the economic rebound continues and regulatory certainty advances.
