Background on the Situation
In response to severe allegations of money laundering by the U.S. Department of Treasury’s FinCEN, the Mexican government opted for a pragmatic solution to mitigate the crisis affecting its financial relationship with the United States. This decision was made within the context of President Donald Trump’s initiative to combat fentanyl and curtail drug cartel financing.
Who is Claudia Sheinbaum?
Claudia Sheinbaum, the current head of Mexico City’s government, initially rejected the accusations from FinCEN. She demanded evidence to support these claims, which have yet to be made public.
Government’s Pragmatic Actions
To protect depositors and investors, the Mexican government took several steps:
- Intervened in the management of the accused financial institutions.
- Transferred part of the fiduciary business from CI Banco to other institutions.
- Organized a bidding process for portions of CI Banco’s and Intercam’s businesses and assets.
These actions were taken while the U.S. Treasury extended the deadline for prohibiting U.S. financial institutions from conducting operations with Mexican counterparts, acknowledging the Mexican government’s efforts.
U.S. Treasury’s Recognition
The U.S. Department of Treasury highlighted Mexico’s cooperation in addressing concerns raised by FinCEN orders, including maintaining temporary administration of affected institutions to promote regulatory compliance and prevent illicit funding.
Avoiding License Cancellation
By opting for a partial sale of assets, Mexican financial authorities avoided canceling bank licenses typically applied for severe regulatory breaches or situations threatening bank stability and depositor security.
To date, only administrative irregularities have been found, resulting in minimal fines for previous offenses. No illicit activities have been confirmed by the U.S. Treasury.
Economic Outlook
Minimal Growth, Persistent Inflation:
Analysts surveyed by Citi have slightly improved their growth projection for Mexico by the end of 2025, maintaining a minimal growth level and anticipating persistent inflation.
- Projected GDP advancement: 0.4% (previously 0.3%) with a range of -0.1% to 0.8%
- GDP for 2026 remains at 1.4%, unchanged from the previous survey
- General inflation by end of 2025: 4.00%; subjacent inflation: 4.10%
- Median expectation for general inflation by end of 2026: 3.76%; subjacent inflation: 3.70%
Most participants expect the next policy rate adjustment in September 2025, with a 25-basis-point cut.
Policy rate projection for the end of 2025: 7.50% (unchanged since six weeks ago), with a range of 7.00% to 7.75%; 6.75% for the end of 2026.
Brief Notes
Armando Herrera Takes Charge at Nu México:
Armando Herrera will assume the CEO position at Nu México starting September 2, succeeding Iván Canales.
