Overview of the Economic Expectations Survey by Caintra, Nuevo León
Monterrey, NL. The Economic Expectations Survey conducted by the Industrial Transformation Industry Chamber of Nuevo León (Caintra) revealed a slight recovery compared to the previous month, primarily in production-related variables. However, the manufacturing sector remains in a contraction zone with low activity.
Key Indicators Showing Recovery
- New Orders: Increased by 3.57 points in July compared to the previous month, reaching 44.20.
- Production Volume: Rose to 44.92 points.
- Capacity Utilization Index: Increased to 45.84 points, still below the contraction threshold of 50 points.
Indicators Showing Declines
Price Indicators
Regarding prices, the product price index maintained a downward trend since early 2022, reaching 51.2 points and staying above the expansion threshold. Meanwhile, the raw materials price index remained virtually unchanged at 59.44 points.
Political Climate as the Main Obstacle
According to 42.6% of survey respondents, the political climate has been the primary obstacle to business performance for the past eight consecutive months.
Following closely, weak economic activity (signaled by more than 38% of respondents) and an adverse international environment have also been cited as significant challenges.
Investments Despite Uncertainty
Despite the uncertainty, 29% of companies invested in machinery, equipment, or construction in July, marking the highest level this year—an increase of 13 percentage points from the previous month. However, this remains below the 36% of companies that invested in July 2024.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is Caintra? Caintra, or the Industrial Transformation Industry Chamber of Nuevo León, is a prominent organization representing manufacturing companies in the Mexican state of Nuevo León.
- Why is this survey important? The Economic Expectations Survey provides insights into the manufacturing sector’s health, helping businesses and policymakers understand current trends and anticipate future developments.
- What does the capacity utilization index tell us? The capacity utilization index measures the extent to which businesses are using their productive resources. A reading below 50 points indicates contraction, while a reading above 50 suggests expansion.
- What are the main challenges for businesses in Nuevo León? The primary obstacles include the political climate, weak economic activity, and an adverse international environment.
