Introduction
According to data presented by the civil organization México Evalúa, Mexico City has emerged as the entity with the highest number of disappearances in the country. This development comes amidst territorial disputes between two major cartels in Mexico City – La Unión and La Anti-Unión – as well as the Cártel del Tren de Aragua’s presence. The report also highlights a decline in institutional integrity, particularly within the fiscal system, and the evolving criminal dynamics.
Key Findings
- Disappearances: Mexico City reported 1,306 disappearances from January to July 2025, making it the national leader in this area.
- Homicide Rates: The report, titled ‘Violence and Local Pacification,’ indicates that 12 out of the 32 states in Mexico have a negative or very negative balance regarding homicides.
- Data Anomalies: The organization warns that official data might not accurately reflect the security crisis in various regions due to anomalies in data behavior. For instance, while intentional homicides decreased by 16.4% from 2024 to 2025 (based on January-July records), other violent crimes against life increased by 2.6%, and disappearances rose by 12.9% during the same period.
States with Highest Homicide Rates
Between January and July of the past year, the states with the most homicides per 100,000 inhabitants were:
- Baja California: 87.5 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants
- Sinaloa: 79.6 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants
- Morelos: 69.5 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants
- Quintana Roo: 65.2 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants
- Guanajuato: 62.5 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants
Institutional Deterioration and Criminal Dynamics
The report by México Evalúa points out that Mexico City is on the verge of shifting from a regular crime balance to a highly negative one. The high volume of disappearances in the capital suggests a decline in fiscal capabilities and an escalation in conflicts between local criminal groups and new organizations.
Moreover, the organization emphasizes that the Mexican government’s method for measuring lethal violence – homicides per 100,000 inhabitants – has limitations. It fails to capture the deteriorating institutional context and evolving criminal dynamics, nor does it reflect the total number of homicides in the country.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main concern highlighted by México Evalúa? The primary concern is the deteriorating security situation in Mexico City, characterized by a high number of disappearances and institutional decline.
- Which states have the highest homicide rates? Between January and July of the past year, Baja California, Sinaloa, Morelos, Quintana Roo, and Guanajuato had the highest homicide rates per 100,000 inhabitants.
- Why are official data interpretations questioned? Official data interpretations are questioned due to anomalies in data behavior, such as decreasing intentional homicides while other violent crimes and disappearances rise.
