Introduction
The question on everyone’s mind is: how can Mexico break the record for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in such a difficult year? Despite global economic uncertainties, negative forecasts for the Mexican and global economy, and domestic issues like judicial reform and insecurity, FDI reached a staggering $34,265 million in the first half of 2025.
Context and Comparison
This achievement is notable as total investment, both public and private, has decreased by 6.7% compared to the same period in 2024, as measured by the Gross Fixed Capital Formation indicator from INEGI.
While FDI grew by 10.2%, private national investment and public investment declined. The FDI growth failed to offset the 29% drop in public investment and approximately 5% decrease in private investment.
Sectoral Analysis
The 10.2% FDI growth masks significant differences among sectors. Manufacturing saw a 26% decline, and mining experienced a 16.7% reduction. The “secret” lies in the strong increase in services, particularly a 90% rise in FDI in financial services. Foreign investors are attracted by the potential of Mexico’s domestic market, reflected in high returns for companies in this sector.
Employment and Investor Behavior
The manufacturing investment drop clearly reflects uncertainty about tariffs and the T-MEC, impacting employment in the sector. This trend has been ongoing for 18 months, with a 2% decrease in manufacturing jobs in June 2025 compared to the same month in 2024.
Investor Trends and Notable Developments
In 2025, there are intriguing developments in investment patterns. Notably, Spanish investment has returned after a negative $219 million in the first half of 2024. Spanish investors are significant players in financial, energy, and tourism sectors.
Had Spanish companies maintained their 2024 performance, FDI would have been $28,103 million, not a record but below 2022 and 2023 levels. This suggests that changes, possibly due to Claudia Sheinbaum’s arrival or Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s departure, have influenced investment patterns.
China’s Absence in Official Records
Despite being a leading FDI generator globally, competing with the US, China is absent from Mexico’s top investor list. The US, Spain, Canada, Japan, and Germany lead the 2025 Secretaría de Economía report. China’s sub-registration in Mexico is intriguing, with official records showing only $2,960 million from 1999 to 2024.
