Overview and Key Figures
The Mexican economy expanded by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2025, according to seasonally adjusted figures released by Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) on Friday. The initial estimate had projected a growth of 0.7%.
The final GDP figure for Q2 is slightly lower than the INEGI’s preliminary estimate of 0.7% and surpasses the average private sector specialists’ projection gathered by Banco de México, which anticipated a contraction of 0.10%. However, the annual GDP growth still stands at 1.2%.
This growth enabled Mexico to avoid a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of decline, according to analysts from Skandia and VeporMás.
Historical Context
In the previous quarter, Mexico’s economy grew by 0.3%, following a 0.6% contraction in Q4 of the previous year.
Component Analysis
Services Sector Leads Growth
The tertiary sector, comprising services and commerce, led the growth with an increase of 0.8% compared to Q1. This sector accounts for 62.1% of the overall GDP and includes 15 economic activities.
Secondary Sector Shows Moderate Progress
The secondary sector, which includes mining, energy generation and distribution, water supply, and manufacturing, grew by 0.7% in Q2. This sector contributes 33.7% to the national GDP.
Primary Sector Contracts
The primary sector, consisting of agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting, experienced a 2.4% contraction in Q2. This segment contributes 4.2% to the national GDP.
First Half Performance
The first half of 2025 saw a 0.9% GDP growth compared to the same period in 2024. This performance aligns with INEGI’s preliminary estimate and marks the weakest post-pandemic first half.
Key Questions and Answers
- Q: What was the expected growth rate for Q2? A: The initial estimate projected a growth of 0.7%.
- Q: What is the annual GDP growth rate? A: The annual GDP growth rate is 1.2%.
- Q: Did Mexico avoid a technical recession? A: Yes, the 0.6% growth in Q2 prevented a technical recession.
- Q: Which sector contributed the most to the growth? A: The tertiary sector, including services and commerce, led the growth with a 0.8% increase.
- Q: What was the growth rate of the secondary sector? A: The secondary sector grew by 0.7% in Q2.
- Q: How did the primary sector perform in Q2? A: The primary sector contracted by 2.4% in Q2.
- Q: What was the overall GDP growth for the first half of 2025? A: The first half of 2025 saw a 0.9% GDP growth.
