Background on Pemex and its Financial Challenges
Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), Mexico’s state-owned petroleum company, has been aiming for financial self-sufficiency by 2027. However, the Centro de Investigación Económica y Presupuestaria (CIEP), a Mexican research organization, has raised concerns about the feasibility of this goal based on discrepancies found in Pemex’s financial documents.
Pemex’s Strategic Plan and Financial Projections
In its recent strategic plan, Pemex projected a positive balance sheet from 2025 to 2035. However, the CIEP analysis revealed that the financial scenarios presented to Pemex’s Board of Directors anticipate deficits from 2027 through 2031. This discrepancy has led the CIEP to question whether Pemex can operate independently without federal support starting in 2027.
Key Discrepancies Identified by CIEP
- Exploration and Production Reduction: The plan suggests an 8.05% reduction in exploration and production activities.
- Refinery Focus: There is an intended increase in refining activities compared to the previous administration.
- Personal Services Expenses: The plan projects a 4.2% increase in personal services expenses, amounting to 111,000 million pesos. However, this growth contrasts with the projected 1.1% annual increase starting from 2026.
Government Support for Pemex (2019-2024)
Under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration (2019-2024), Pemex received financial support totaling 2.4 billion pesos through patrimonial contributions and a reduction in the Derecho de Utilidad Compartida (DUC).
- Patrimonial Contributions: These strengthened Pemex’s financial position.
- DUC Reduction: This served as a fiscal relief, reducing tax payments and increasing cash flow without generating additional revenue for Pemex.
Continued Government Support under Claudia Sheinbaum
Under the current administration of Claudia Sheinbaum, Pemex has continued to receive financial support. The reduction in DUC has been maintained, and a dedicated budget line has been established via the Secretaría de Energía (Sener) for transfers to Pemex.
This year, the approved budget line amounts to 136,000 million pesos. It is expected that the upcoming Paquete Económico 2026, to be delivered on September 8, will include another dedicated budget line for the third consecutive year.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the concerns raised by CIEP regarding Pemex’s self-sufficiency goal? The CIEP has questioned Pemex’s ability to achieve financial self-sufficiency by 2027 due to discrepancies between the strategic plan’s positive projections and the financial scenarios presented to the Board of Directors, which anticipate deficits from 2027 through 2031.
- What are the key discrepancies identified by CIEP in Pemex’s financial projections? The main discrepancies include an 8.05% reduction in exploration and production, an increased focus on refining activities, and a projected 4.2% increase in personal services expenses that contrasts with the planned 1.1% annual growth starting from 2026.
- How has the Mexican government supported Pemex from 2019 to 2024? During this period, Pemex received financial support totaling 2.4 billion pesos through patrimonial contributions and a reduction in the Derecho de Utilidad Compartida (DUC). Patrimonial contributions strengthened Pemex’s financial position, while the DUC reduction served as fiscal relief by lowering tax payments and increasing cash flow without generating additional revenue.
- What is the current situation regarding government support for Pemex? Under Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, Pemex continues to receive financial support through the reduction of DUC and a dedicated budget line established via the Secretaría de Energía (Sener) for transfers to Pemex. This year, the approved budget line is 136,000 million pesos, and it is expected that the Paquete Económico 2026 will include another dedicated budget line for the third consecutive year.
