Introduction
The industrial market has shown historical figures, with the market value of real estate investment trusts (FIBRAs) surpassing 846,000 million pesos in July, boasting occupancy rates close to 95% in the industrial segment.
Nearshoring’s Central Role
For the past three years, nearshoring has been at the heart of Mexico’s industrial real estate sector discussion. The idea that Mexico can absorb the relocation of global supply chains has gained significant attention.
Key Developments
- New stock market placements, such as Fibra Next
- Strategic moves like Terrafina’s public offering for acquisition
Assessing Nearshoring’s Impact
While nearshoring has driven the creation of new platforms like Fibra Next, which aims to capitalize on 8.8 million square meters in the coming years, it’s crucial to separate rhetoric from concrete results.
Q2 2025 Data Analysis
The second quarter of 2025 presents a mixed picture: strong revenue growth and high occupancy levels, but uncertain demand sustainability in the coming years.
FIBRAs Performance
Representative FIBRAs’ performance offers a nuanced view of nearshoring’s impact.
Fibra Monterrey
- Reported 845.2 million pesos in Q2 2025, a 34.9% increase from the previous year
- Backed by strategic acquisitions, like an 82,251 square meter warehouse leased to Mercado Libre in León, Guanajuato
This Fibra’s success demonstrates nearshoring translates to firm contracts and portfolio expansion into emerging Bajío regions.
Fibra Macquarie
- Achieved 1,346 million pesos in Q2 2025, an 18.1% annual increase
- However, occupancy dropped from 97.6% to 94.8%
This example highlights that despite strong demand, some portfolios are feeling pressure from tenant turnover or difficulty maintaining full occupancy.
Market Performance and Sectorial Concentration
The financial results reflect these differences, with Fibra Monterrey, Fibra Prologis, and FUNO leading the pack with 20.4%, 20.5%, and 31.1% returns, respectively.
In contrast, other industrial players like Fibra Macquarie and Vesta have only managed 0.83% and -2.83% growth, respectively.
Critical Examination of Official Narratives
Beyond financial outcomes, it’s essential to critique the official nearshoring narrative:
- Saturation: Near-full employment in markets like Monterrey or Tijuana leaves little room for new flows without pressuring prices or compromising contract quality.
- Sectorial Concentration: Most demand originates from the automotive, electronics, and e-commerce industries.
- Geopolitical Risk: Recent US tariffs on steel and aluminum remind us that Mexico’s appeal depends on fragile trade relationship balances.
- FIBRAs: Communicate growth figures alongside risk management strategies for saturation, concentration, and tariff exposure.
Government Initiatives
In response to these challenges, the Mexican government launched Plan México in January, aiming for industrialization and import substitution with goals like elevating investment to 25% of GDP, creating 1.5 million jobs by 2030, and increasing export content by 15%.
However, its success hinges on limited public funding and the possibility of the US tightening its security-shoring strategy, potentially trapping Mexico between Washington and Beijing.
Rebuilding the Narrative
The challenge now is to reconstruct the nearshoring narrative, viewing it as a strategic process with risks and opportunities rather than an inevitable destination.
In conclusion, nearshoring has brought Mexico’s industrial real estate sector to a historic juncture. However, enthusiasm must be paired with strategy. There’s room to absorb demand and flexibility for innovation, but also risks to anticipate before enthusiasm leads to oversupply.
The future of FIBRAs hinges on their ability to transform this narrative into a sustainable, diversified, and internationally resilient strategy.
