Overview of Economic Projections and Their Implications
The government, led by Claudia Sheinbaum, has projected that Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 2.3% in the second year of her administration, according to the General Economic Policy Criteria 2026 presented to Congress. This projection is half a percentage point higher than the average market consensus, which stands at 1.4%, as gathered by Citi’s survey.
GDP Growth Projection
The Secretariat of Finance’s economic team expects the economy to grow by 2.3% in 2026, which is an upward adjustment from the 1.9% they initially projected in April. This revised estimate falls between 1.8% and 2.8%, surpassing both the market consensus (1.4%) and projections from Banco de México (1.1%) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (1.4%).
Interest Rate Expectations
Within the second economic package under Sheinbaum’s government, they anticipate that the nominal interest rate will be 6% by the end of the current year. This is a downward adjustment from the 7% they projected in April, suggesting that Banco de México will continue reducing the interest rate by an additional 175 basis points across eleven scheduled monetary meetings by December 2026. Currently, the rate stands at 7.75%, which analysts from BNP Paribas, Invex, Rankia, and Skandia consider restrictive.
Oil and Exchange Rate Projections
Two crucial assumptions for the projected public revenues in 2026 are oil prices and the exchange rate. The government expects the Mexican basket price to average $54.9 per barrel in 2026, a slight decrease from the previously estimated $55.3 per barrel. This projection comes as this year’s average oil price has been around $62.54 per barrel from January to July.
Regarding the exchange rate, the Secretariat of Finance estimates that it will close at 18.9 pesos per dollar in 2026, a more significant depreciation than the 19.7 pesos per dollar they anticipated in April.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the GDP growth projection for 2026? The Mexican government anticipates a GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026, which is higher than the market consensus (1.4%) and projections from Banco de México (1.1%) and the IMF (1.4%).
- How does the interest rate projection compare to market expectations? The government expects a nominal interest rate of 6% by the end of 2025, which is lower than the market’s expectation of around 7.25%.
- What are the projected oil prices and exchange rates for 2026? The government expects an average Mexican basket price of $54.9 per barrel and a closing exchange rate of 18.9 pesos per dollar in 2026.
- How does the government’s inflation forecast compare to market expectations? The government anticipates an annual inflation rate of 3.8% in 2026, which is below the market’s expectation of 4%, as per Citi’s survey.
Contextualizing Claudia Sheinbaum’s Relevance
Claudia Sheinbaum is the current Head of Government of Mexico City, serving since 2018. Although her role is primarily focused on the capital city, she has been influential in shaping national policies due to Mexico City’s significant economic and political importance. As the Sheinbaum government presents these economic projections, her administration’s decisions and policies can impact the national economy.
