Economic Overview and Projections
Mexico’s economy has officially entered a technical recession, according to the team of economists at Citi. The country has experienced two consecutive quarters of decline in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registration.
- Fourth quarter of 2024 saw a 0.6% decrease.
- First quarter of 2025 experienced a 0.4% contraction.
Citi economists project a mere 0.2% growth for Mexico by the end of 2025, with further projections as follows:
- 0.2% growth in April-June 2025
- 0.4% growth in July-September 2025
- 0.4% growth in October-December 2025
These projections align with other institutions’ downward revisions, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowering its growth forecast from 2% to 0.3% for 2025 and the World Bank projecting zero growth for Mexico in 2025, down from its previous estimate of 1.5%.
Government vs. Independent Economic Groups
The Mexican government remains optimistic, with President Claudia Sheinbaum dismissing recession fears and Finance Secretary Edgar Amador projecting a growth range of 1.5% to 2.3% for 2025 and 1.5% to 2.5% for 2026.
However, independent economic groups continue to display a more pessimistic outlook in their projections. The severity of the economic slowdown will depend on the level and duration of tariffs announced and implemented by President Donald Trump.
Banamex Acquisition Speculation
Rumors circulated rapidly when Banorte’s CEO, Marcos Ramírez, mentioned that the bank would analyze any market opportunities, including a potential acquisition of Banamex, which recently separated from Citigroup.
Ramírez clarified that Banorte is obligated to observe and analyze market options but does not necessarily intend to make an offer for Banamex. He stated, “our duty is to observe and analyze what’s happening in the market, and it will be the shareholders who make the decision.”
Both Banorte and Banamex have emphasized that Ramírez’s statement adheres to the protocol and institutional language of publicly traded entities. There is no immediate intention for a specific acquisition, but Banorte acknowledges evaluating market opportunities.
Citi Group has repeatedly stated its intention to sell Banamex through the stock market by the end of 2025, though the process might be postponed until 2026. As time progresses, it is likely that rumors about other banks’ interest in acquiring Banamex will emerge by mid-year.
