Experts from Grupo Coppel’s Economic Studies Directorate Support the Government’s Growth Projection
Experts from Grupo Coppel’s Economic Studies Directorate have expressed support for the Mexican government’s proposal of a 2.3% economic growth rate for 2026, despite it being higher than market forecasts. The Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público’s (Ministry of Finance and Public Credit) proposal is deemed reasonable, given the context of structural weaknesses in productive capacity and external shocks.
Market vs. Official Growth Projections
The average growth rate projected by the market, according to Citi’s survey, is 1.4%, while Grupo Coppel anticipates 1.6%. The government’s more optimistic projection, at 4.1% of GDP, could provide an additional economic boost, according to the experts.
Risks Linked to Optimistic Growth Projections
Despite the support, the experts acknowledge that significant risks remain associated with overly optimistic growth projections and the recovery of the petroleum industry. These risks could lead to an overestimation of public revenues and additional budgetary pressures.
The success of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) support and rescue program will be crucial for the sustainability of public finances, given the substantial fiscal resources committed to the state-owned enterprise.
Factors Accelerating GDP Growth
Arturo Vieyra, head of Grupo Coppel’s economic team, acknowledged that his 1.6% GDP growth projection for 2026 might be conservative if public policies demonstrate a more favorable impact through the Plan México.
Vieyra highlighted the positive dialogue between the Mexican president and the business sector, which was absent in the previous administration. This improved communication could foster growth.
He also suggested that a housing program could yield tangible results by accelerating construction and financing.
However, Vieyra noted that remittances, which support consumption and are sometimes invested in housing construction, could also put downward pressure on the GDP.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the government’s proposed growth rate for 2026? The Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público has proposed a 2.3% economic growth rate for 2026.
- How do market projections compare to the government’s proposal? Market projections average around 1.4%, while Grupo Coppel anticipates 1.6%. The government’s proposal is more optimistic at 4.1% of GDP.
- What risks do experts identify with the growth projections? Experts warn of overly optimistic growth projections and petroleum industry recovery risks, which could lead to overestimated public revenues and additional budgetary pressures.
- How could public policies impact the GDP growth? More favorable public policies, as demonstrated through Plan México, could lead to a more optimistic GDP growth outlook.
- What role could a housing program play in accelerating the economy? A well-implemented housing program could boost construction and financing, thereby accelerating GDP growth.
- How might remittances affect the GDP? While remittances support consumption, a portion of these funds is invested in housing construction, which could exert downward pressure on the GDP.
