Background on BBVA and Banamex
BBVA and Banamex are two of the largest financial institutions operating in Mexico. Their insights and opinions hold significant weight due to their extensive experience and influence in the Mexican economy.
Support for Fiscal Discipline
BBVA and Banamex welcomed the Mexican federal government’s commitment, as outlined in the 2026 Economic Package, to maintain fiscal discipline. This commitment is reflected in the proposed target of a primary surplus of 0.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a stable public debt at 52.3% of GDP.
BBVA México’s Perspective
According to BBVA México’s economic research department, the 2026 Criterion for General Economic Policy confirms the federal government’s intention to continue with fiscal discipline. They view this as a positive signal.
However, BBVA México also acknowledged that last year’s high public deficit, the largest in the past 40 years, leaves the federal government with no room for implementing a countercyclical fiscal policy. They emphasized that if the economic growth slows down in 2026, as many analysts predict, achieving the primary surplus target for the following year will become challenging. This would necessitate further public spending cuts amidst strong pressures from Pemex debt repayments and reduced fiscal space.
Positive Steps in Tax Income
BBVA highlighted that the 2026 Economic Package includes positive measures regarding tax income, such as increasing taxes on sugary drinks, cigarettes, bets, violent video games, and modifications to the miscellaneous tax provisions to combat tax evasion.
Despite these positive steps, BBVA stressed that a tax reform will be necessary in the medium term due to ongoing pressures on public spending from expanding social programs and pension payments. Additionally, the government plans to transfer 263.5 billion pesos to Pemex in 2026 for debt amortization and bank loans.
Banamex’s Perspective
Banamex echoed BBVA’s view that the government intends to keep public debt constant, albeit at a higher level than previously announced.
Banamex’s economic research department noted that the strategy will focus on strengthening revenues without raising tax rates, while adjusting public spending. They considered it positive to maintain the debt stabilization vision but pointed out that some assumptions supporting revenues are overly optimistic, and the reliance on currency appreciation for debt stabilization carries risks.
Banamex emphasized that a structural solution for public finances should involve evaluating a tax reform to bolster both federal and local public revenues.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the main focus of BBVA and Banamex’s statements? Both institutions support the Mexican government’s commitment to fiscal discipline, as outlined in the 2026 Economic Package.
- Why do BBVA and Banamex believe a tax reform is necessary? They foresee ongoing pressures on public spending from expanding social programs, pension payments, and large debt repayments by Pemex. They also consider that the current tax measures are not sufficient to ensure long-term fiscal stability.
- What specific tax measures do BBVA and Banamex support in the 2026 Economic Package? Both institutions endorse increasing taxes on sugary drinks, cigarettes, bets, violent video games, and implementing modifications to combat tax evasion.
- What concerns do BBVA and Banamex express regarding the 2026 Economic Package? They are cautious about overly optimistic assumptions supporting revenues and the reliance on currency appreciation for debt stabilization.
