Introduction
Contrary to the promises made by Claudia Sheinbaum’s government, there will indeed be tax increases and new levies in 2026. The proposed economic package for the upcoming year includes raising taxes on sugary drinks, tobacco, gambling, violent video games, and savings.
Key Tax Increases
The Mexican government anticipates generating 41,000 million pesos from these “healthy” taxes. The following consumer sins will now be taxed:
- Sugary drinks: An additional 3.08 pesos per liter, regardless of sugar content.
- Tobacco: A 160% to 200% increase for tobacco consumption.
- Gambling: A 30% to 50% increase.
- Violent video games: An 8% increase in taxes.
Moreover, the government plans to impose taxes on well-off individuals and savers. The savings tax will rise from 0.50% in the current year to 0.90% in 2026.
Impact on Financial Institutions
Fintechs will now be required to withhold income tax (ISR) and value-added tax (IVA), similar to traditional banks. Banks will no longer be able to deduct their contributions to the Bank Deposit Protection Institute, resulting in an annual income of 10,000 million pesos for the government.
Legal Changes
The proposed Income Law for the upcoming fiscal year includes modifications to the Rights Law, the Fiscal Code, and the Special Products and Services Tax (IEPS) Law.
Economic Outlook
Optimism Amidst Low Growth:
Despite the low growth, the economic package maintains an optimistic tone. It proposes increased social spending, higher “healthy” taxes, and more debt and interest.
The projected GDP growth rate ranges between 1.8% and 2.8% by the end of 2026. However, the growth for the closing of 2025 is expected to be only 0.5%, down from the initial prediction of 2.5% to 3.5%.
Additional Debt
The government’s proposal implies continued overspending compared to income. The Income Law aims for 8.7 trillion pesos in revenue, while the Expenditure Law anticipates a net total expenditure of 10.1 trillion pesos.
- Out of the social programs, 14 prioritized ones will absorb 987.16 million pesos.
- The fiscal deficit remains high, projected at 4.3% of the GDP for 2025 (above the approved 3.9%) and 4.1% for 2026.
- The cost of debt interest will be 1.57 trillion pesos in 2026, a 10.4% increase from this year.
Pemex will receive 708 billion pesos, and the Historical SHRFSP (ratio of public sector debt to GDP) will rise to 52.3%.
Authorized additional debt includes 1.7 trillion pesos of domestic debt and 15,500 million USD of foreign debt.
Tight Fiscal Margin
Public finances operate with a narrow margin.
- Fixed expenses total 7.3 trillion pesos, broken down as follows: government operations (4.1 trillion), pensions (1.7 trillion), debt interest (1.57 trillion), and social programs in 2026 (987 million pesos), with 53% allocated to the Pension for the Elderly (526 billion pesos).
Tariff Incomes
The government aims to collect 70,000 million pesos in tariffs by 2026 by reviewing 1,400 customs fractions on goods from countries without existing trade agreements.
Hacienda intends to tighten customs regulations, implement new tariffs, and strengthen its anti-evasion campaign to boost income.
