Introduction to the Economic Policy 2026
The public finances aim to foster economic development, which is crucial for sustainable poverty reduction and broader progress than in recent years. Conversely, economic growth is essential for the state to have resources to provide goods and services in vital areas like security, health, and education.
The Importance of the General Criteria for Economic Policy (CGPE)
The Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP) presented the CGPE, outlining the macroeconomic framework and perspectives for 2026 and beyond, along with the Income Tax Law Initiative and the Federal Government’s 2026 Budget Expenditure Project.
Economic Growth Projections
The CGPE estimates that Mexico’s economy could grow between 1.8% and 2.8% in 2026, surpassing the estimations of many institutions that monitor Mexico’s economic performance. The median estimate from 41 of these institutions is 1.3%.
Challenges and Opportunities
Demand-Side Factors
Stable and predictable trade relations with the United States could generate or reactivate investment projects, boosting the construction industry. However, Donald Trump’s tariff policy remains a potential threat, requiring unpredictability to maintain pressure in other areas of the bilateral relationship.
Government-led railway construction is expected to stimulate economic activity, but the Tren Maya has yet to demonstrate profitability. In 2026, it will still receive 30 billion pesos, seven and a half times the allocation for the Salud Casa por Casa program (4 billion pesos), a new health initiative with poor results in recent years.
Private consumption growth is anticipated due to salary increases and cash transfer programs, though the margin for minimum wage growth is smaller than before. Social programs will grow, but only significantly with the “Pensión Mujeres Bienestar” program, which will receive nearly 57 billion pesos.
Supply-Side Factors
The relationship with the United States remains the anchor for economic growth, according to SHCP. A successful six-year review of the T-MEC by 2026 and a stable tariff environment could improve Mexico’s manufacturing performance.
The Plan México aims to deploy significant infrastructure, particularly energy and logistics, which can increase the productivity of Mexican companies. However, electric infrastructure has lagged behind demand growth needs, and the Sheinbaum administration has acknowledged the limitations without further investment in transmission and distribution.
Conclusion
Without economic growth, poverty reduction and public finances will not be sustainable. Pressures on public finances will persist, especially as public spending commitments continue to grow (pensions, Pemex, social programs, etc.) without restraint.
Although SHCP acknowledges risks and may underestimate them, the 2026 CGPE appears more realistic regarding public sector financial requirements compared to previous years.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the main objectives of public finances? Public finances aim to foster economic development, which is crucial for sustainable poverty reduction and broader progress.
- What are the economic growth projections for 2026? The CGPE estimates that Mexico’s economy could grow between 1.8% and 2.8% in 2026.
- What are the demand-side factors affecting economic growth? Stable trade relations with the United States and government-led infrastructure projects can stimulate economic activity.
- What are the supply-side factors affecting economic growth? A favorable T-MEC review and stable tariffs can improve manufacturing performance, while infrastructure development, particularly in energy and logistics, can boost productivity.
- What challenges do public finances face without economic growth? Without economic growth, poverty reduction and public finances will not be sustainable. Public finance pressures will persist as public spending commitments continue to grow.
