How Climate Change Will Impact Ocean Waves, Maritime Routes, and Geopolitics

Introduction

Most climate studies focus on future temperature projections due to greenhouse gas emissions, but this phenomenon also affects ocean wave patterns. Researchers from the University of the Basque Country have analyzed how the Earth’s atmosphere-ocean system absorbs temperature changes caused by climate change and impacts marine environments.

The Arctic: Less Ice, More Waves

An OECD report highlights the potential benefits of Arctic de-icing for goods transportation, estimating a 40% reduction in transit time between Asia and Europe. However, once the ice is partially gone, the researchers’ projections indicate a significant increase in wind and wave height by the end of the century, making navigation difficult even without ice.

Question: What are the potential benefits of Arctic de-icing for maritime transportation?

Answer: The OECD report suggests a 40% reduction in transit time between Asia and Europe due to Arctic de-icing.

Question: How might increased wind and wave height in the Arctic impact maritime navigation?

Answer: The significant increase in wind and wave height could make navigation difficult, even without ice.

The Mediterranean: Waves, Renewable Energy, and Security

The Mediterranean is a crucial link in another maritime route, carrying oil and gas from the Indian Ocean to Europe. The research shows an opposite behavior compared to the Arctic, with notable reductions in wind and wave height by the end of the century. The Mediterranean is expected to experience the most significant decreases in wind and wave height globally by 2100.

Enlace imagen

Proyecciones de cambios en la altura de ola hasta 2100 en el Mediterráneo.Gabriel Ibarra, CC BY-SA

The emerging implementation of wave energy extraction plants could face challenges, as the design of the first operational Mediterranean plant in Jaffa (Israel) relies on pistons whose performance depends on wave height. The predicted decrease in wave height presents new challenges for the technological development of similar plants in the Mediterranean.

Question: How might changes in wind and wave height affect the development of wave energy extraction plants in the Mediterranean?

Answer: The predicted decrease in wave height presents new challenges for the technological development of wave energy extraction plants in the Mediterranean.

Additionally, changes are expected in the wind sector and offshore parks planned for the coming decades, as they will have to face a decline in production due to reduced wind speed.

Can We Rely on Alternative Routes in the Future?

Reduced wave height decreases navigation times and costs, reinforcing the role of these two Mediterranean-centered routes. The primary global pattern emerging in wind and wave height projections until 2100 is a strong asymmetry between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, with the latter experiencing the most significant increases.

As a result, alternative routes around Africa may face difficulties due to the expected increase in wind and waves in the Indian and Southern Atlantic over the coming decades.

Question: How might climate change-induced future changes impact the importance of key nodes in maritime routes?

Answer: Climate change-induced future changes may increase the potential disruption caused by key nodes in maritime routes, making control of these nodes crucial.

Northern Pacific and Access to the Atlantic

In areas like the Atlantic and Northern Pacific, wind and wave height reductions are also expected. This will lead to smoother navigation with lower costs, further emphasizing the geopolitical importance of the Panama Canal as a strategic link in global maritime traffic.

Recent U.S. movements to secure control highlight the extraordinary relevance expected for the Panama Canal in upcoming decades due to anticipated increased traffic from smoother navigation.

Geopolitics of Waves

The more favorable the prospects for consolidating current navigation routes until 2100, the greater the potential disruption caused by key elements in the face of geopolitical events. Without new alternative routes, interested parties must focus on controlling or partially controlling existing routes.

Question: What are the implications of the lack of new alternative maritime routes for geopolitical stability?

Answer: The lack of new alternative maritime routes may lead to increased control or partial control of existing routes, potentially resulting in unexpected agreements like those observed during the recent Persian Gulf crisis.

Further regional studies on the evolution, frequency, and intensity of future extreme marine events are needed for better adaptation, planning, and management of the oceans. This will also help refine the economic and geopolitical implications resulting from changes in ocean conditions.