Introduction
The Mexican Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) has identified seven risks that could impact Mexico’s economy in 2026, according to the General Criteria for Economic Policy (CGPE) 2026. These risks include trade uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and extreme climate events.
Economic Growth Projections
SHCP estimates that Mexico’s economy will grow between 1.8% and 2.8% in 2026, with inflation within the Banco de México’s (Banxico) target range of 3 ±1%. However, the macroeconomic environment for 2026 is subject to risks that could alter previous estimations, as the ministry had to adjust its growth expectations for 2025 to a range of 0.5% to 1.5%.
Seven Identified Risks
- Trade Policy Uncertainty: The persistence or intensification of global trade policy uncertainty could lead to disruptions in value chains, affecting Mexico’s national economic activity directly.
- T-MEC Review Process Deterioration: A deterioration in the review process of the Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá (T-MEC) could increase legal and trade uncertainty, potentially harming Mexico’s export sector, a key driver of its growth.
- Tightening Financial Conditions: Higher interest rates and increased volatility in financial markets could emerge in response to new inflationary pressures, many linked to changes in trade policy or geopolitical tensions.
- Geopolitical Tensions: These tensions could impact international raw material prices and increase global financial instability.
- Extreme Climate Events: Extreme climate events could affect primary, manufacturing, and infrastructure activities, as well as influence prices.
- United States Economic Performance: If the United States, Mexico’s primary trading partner, does not grow at the expected rate, it could negatively impact Mexican exports, tourism, and remittances, which might decrease by 13% in 2026 according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
- New Disruptions in Global Supply Chains: The emergence of new disruptions in global supply chains due to logistical shocks, maritime blockages, or critical input restrictions could impact manufacturing production.
Factors that Could Boost the Economy
On a positive note, dissipation of trade policy uncertainty and favorable progress in the T-MEC review could help Mexico’s economy perform better, reactivating investment projects. Moreover, consolidation of productive infrastructure projects could stimulate regional economic dynamism and local value chains.
- Positive Impact of New US Trade Policies: Favorable new US trade policies could boost demand for Mexican exports, particularly in manufacturing, automotive, and electronics sectors, strengthening Mexico’s strategic position in North America.
- Greater Market Diversification: Increased insertion of high-value-added products into new export markets could enhance Mexico’s external resilience.
- More Favorable Financial Conditions: If monetary relaxation in advanced economies exceeds expectations, a decrease in credit costs could stimulate private investment and domestic consumption.
- Strengthened Plan México: With implemented fiscal and financial incentives since this year, Plan México could become a more potent growth driver, especially if it effectively links with regional infrastructure and development projects.
Key Questions and Answers
- What are the main risks to Mexico’s economy in 2026? The SHCP has identified seven risks, including trade policy uncertainty, T-MEC review deterioration, tightening financial conditions, escalating geopolitical tensions, extreme climate events, underperformance of the US economy, and new disruptions in global supply chains.
- How could these risks affect Mexico’s economy? These risks could lead to disruptions in value chains, increased legal and trade uncertainty, higher interest rates, global financial instability, impacts on primary activities, decreased remittances, and reduced manufacturing production.
- What factors could potentially boost Mexico’s economy in 2026? Dissipation of trade policy uncertainty, favorable T-MEC review progress, positive impacts of new US trade policies, greater market diversification, more favorable financial conditions, and a strengthened Plan México could all contribute to economic growth.
