Background on Claudia Sheinbaum and Her Government
Claudia Sheinbaum is the current Head of Government (equivalent to a mayor) of Mexico City, serving since 2018. In December 2021, she was elected as the presidential candidate for the Morena party in the 2024 presidential election. Although she does not hold a national position, her political influence stems from her role in Mexico City and her association with the ruling party.
Private Sector’s Concerns on Mexico’s Public Finances
The private sector in Mexico, represented by the Center for Economic Studies of the Private Sector (CEESP), has raised concerns about the country’s public finances. The CEESP is part of the Coordinating Business Council (CCE), which brings together various business chambers and associations in Mexico.
Debt Increase Under Sheinbaum’s Government
According to the CEESP analysis, Mexico’s public debt will increase by 2.8 trillion pesos in the first two years of Claudia Sheinbaum’s government. This is a significant rise compared to the 1.5 trillion pesos added during the previous administration’s corresponding period.
Proposed Endeavorments and Their Insufficiency
The Mexican government aims to reduce the deficit through the 2026 Budget of Expenditures and the Income Law. However, private sector analysts argue that these efforts are insufficient. They warn that relying on increased taxes or revenue measures instead of fostering economic growth and maintaining social programs may not provide a stable scenario for the medium to long term.
Economic Growth and Resilience
Despite concerns, the Mexican government believes that domestic consumption, national investment, and the country’s strategic position in global value chains will support economic resilience. However, these factors might weaken in the coming year, aligning with the projected slow growth rate.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the concern of the private sector regarding Mexico’s public finances? The private sector, represented by CEESP, is worried about the increasing public debt under Claudia Sheinbaum’s government. They argue that proposed measures to reduce the deficit are insufficient.
- How much will Mexico’s public debt increase in the first two years of Sheinbaum’s government? The public debt is expected to rise by 2.8 trillion pesos in the initial two years of Sheinbaum’s administration.
- What factors does the Mexican government believe will support economic resilience? The government points to domestic consumption, national investment, and Mexico’s strategic position in global value chains as key elements for economic resilience.
- What growth rate does the Mexican government anticipate for 2026? According to the Criterios Generales de Política Económica 2026, the Mexican economy is projected to grow between 1.8% and 2.8%, with a specific target of 2.3%. This differs from expert estimations that predict only a 1.3% growth rate.
