Background on the Economist and Relevance
Saidé Salazar, the principal economist at BBVA Research, closely monitors Mexico’s economic trends. Her expertise and insights are crucial for understanding the current state of private consumption in Mexico.
August’s Consumption Uptick
Private consumption in Mexico increased by 2.5% in August compared to the same month last year, according to BBVA Research’s Consumer Spending Big Data Indicator. This growth was largely driven by the return to school, which boosted purchases of certain products and services.
This positive trend follows a 1.3% decline in July and a mere 0.1% growth in June.
Contextualizing Consumer Confidence
Salazar noted that, while August’s data offers relief for this economic segment, it is insufficient to establish a clear recovery signal for the second half of the year. This is due to the ongoing decline in consumer confidence, which has dropped by an average of 2.4% monthly over the past eight months.
Specifically, consumer confidence has fallen by 7.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year when it was growing at 4.7%.
Spending Patterns
Point-of-sale terminal spending has recovered to April levels, though it remains below 2014’s dynamics. Over the first eight months of the year, card spending has grown at an average annual rate of 8.4%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points compared to the same period in 2014 when it grew at 12%.
Salazar anticipates a sluggish private consumption trend moving forward, given the prolonged uncertainty faced by households amidst a slowdown in real wage growth.
E-commerce Spending Continues to Rise
Despite the broader consumption slowdown, online spending has continued to grow. According to BBVA Research’s Consumer Spending Big Data Indicator, online spending increased by 2.9% in August, recovering to June levels and surpassing the beginning-of-year mark by 30.7%. Overall, internet-based purchases have risen by 131.3% from January to August 2025.
In contrast, spending in physical stores only increased by 0.9% during the same period.
Spending on Goods and Services
Within goods, food spending rose by 3.4% in August compared to the previous month, while personal care product consumption increased by 2.1%. However, both categories show less dynamism this year compared to 2014, with food spending averaging an annual growth of 6.1% (down from 12.4%) and personal care products growing at 4.6% (down from 15.5%).
Service Sector Performance
Restaurant consumption increased by 5.4% in August, though annual performance has been weak with an average decline of 1.2%. Meanwhile, entertainment service consumption rebounded by 6.7% in August, recovering to the May level.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is private consumption, and why is it important? Private consumption refers to the spending by households on goods and services. It is a crucial indicator of economic health, as it represents a significant portion of overall economic activity.
- Who is Saidé Salazar, and why is her opinion relevant? Saidé Salazar is a principal economist at BBVA Research, a leading institution in analyzing Mexico’s economic trends. Her insights are valuable for understanding the current state and future projections of private consumption in Mexico.
- Why is consumer confidence important, and why has it been declining? Consumer confidence reflects households’ optimism about their financial situation and the overall economy. Its decline suggests that consumers are less likely to spend, which can negatively impact economic growth.
- What is the current trend in e-commerce spending compared to physical store spending? While overall consumption has slowed, online spending has continued to grow, rising by 131.3% from January to August 2025. In contrast, physical store spending has only increased by 0.9% during the same period.
- How have spending patterns on goods and services changed this year compared to 2014? Spending on food and personal care products has shown less dynamism this year, with annual growth rates decreasing compared to 2014. However, the service sector has seen mixed results, with restaurant consumption increasing while entertainment services have recovered from a previous slump.
