Introduction
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has reported that artificial intelligence (AI) could potentially increase the value of global trade by nearly 40% by the year 2040. This growth stems from reduced trade costs and increased productivity, according to the WTO’s latest annual report on global trade.
AI as a Bright Spot in Global Trade
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the WTO Director, highlighted AI’s potential to drive trade by lowering trade costs and reshaping the production of goods and services during the report presentation.
- WTO simulations suggest that AI could boost global exports of goods and services by almost 40% compared to current trends.
- However, AI also poses a threat to labor markets, and inadequate policies could cause lower-income countries to miss out on opportunities.
Addressing Inequality Concerns
Okonjo-Iweala emphasized the importance of ensuring that AI increases opportunities for everyone, rather than deepening existing inequalities and exclusions.
If lower-income economies fail to close the digital divide, WTO projections limit their benefit growth to only 8% by 2040, significantly lower than the estimated 14% for higher-income countries.
Bridging the Digital Divide
The WTO report suggests that if lower-income countries reduce their digital infrastructure gap by 50% and more widely adopt AI, they could match the gains of higher-income countries.
“With the right mix of trade, investment, and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities across all economies,” stated Okonjo-Iweala.
Rising Trade Restrictions on AI-Related Goods
The WTO also noted an increasing trend of countries imposing more trade restrictions on AI-related goods. In 2024, nearly 500 such restrictions were in place, primarily by middle- and high-income economies, compared to just 130 in 2012.
