Background on INEGI and its Indicators
The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) is Mexico’s official statistics agency, responsible for producing official statistics and conducting surveys to collect socioeconomic and demographic data.
Two key indicators developed by INEGI are the Indicador Oportuno del Consumo Privado (IOCP) and the Indicador Mensual del Consumo Privado (IMCP). The IOCP offers an early, albeit less precise, estimate of private consumption trends, while the IMCP provides a more accurate, official measurement released approximately nine weeks after the reference month.
July and August Consumption Stagnates
According to INEGI’s preliminary estimates, Mexican private consumption has remained weak during July and August 2025.
- Monthly Variation: Spending on goods and services by Mexican families decreased by 0.7% in July and remained stagnant at 0.0% in August.
- Annual Variation: The IOCP reports annual declines of 0.7% for both July and August.
If these projections hold, INEGI’s data shows that private consumption has contracted for four consecutive months and five annually from January to July 2025.
Contextual Factors Affecting Consumption
Several factors have contributed to the cooling consumption trend:
- Weakened Labor Market: The formal job market, which typically offers better salaries, has experienced a decline. This has negatively impacted household income and spending capacity.
- Remittances Dynamism: The growth in remittances, a crucial source of income for many Mexican families, has slowed down, further affecting consumption.
Key Questions and Answers
- What is the IOCP? The Indicador Oportuno del Consumo Privado (IOCP) is an experimental statistic developed by INEGI that provides an early, albeit less precise, estimate of private consumption trends.
- How does the IOCP differ from the IMCP? The IOCP is released two months after the reference month, while the IMCP offers a more accurate measurement but takes approximately nine weeks to be published.
- What factors are affecting Mexican private consumption? The weakened formal labor market, reduced remittances growth, and overall economic uncertainty have contributed to the cooling consumption trend.
